000061318 001__ 61318
000061318 005__ 20170518134550.0
000061318 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.3354/cr028183
000061318 0248_ $$2sideral$$a55932
000061318 037__ $$aART-2005-55932
000061318 041__ $$aeng
000061318 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-7974-7435$$aAbaurrea, J.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000061318 245__ $$aForecasting Local Daily Precipitation Patterns in a Climate Change Scenario
000061318 260__ $$c2005
000061318 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000061318 5203_ $$aThe present study introduces a statistical procedure for obtaining long-term local daily precipitation forecasts in a climate change scenario. It is based on a regression model that uses climate variables properly reproduced by a General Circulation Model (GCM) as predictors. The daily rainfall model used consists of a logistic regression as the occurrence model and a generalized linear model (GLM) with Gamma error distribution as the quantity model. The ability of the model to generate  plausible  long-term  projections  is  analysed  by  studying  and  comparing  its  behaviour  using observed and GCM simulated data as input. The method is applied to forecast the rainfall pattern in the area of Zaragoza (Spain) for the period 2090 –2100, in an IS92a scenario. We use the data corresponding  to  an  experiment  with  the  CGCM1  model,  the  first  version  of  the  coupled  GCM  of  the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma). The results obtained show that no significant  change  in  global  rainfall  frequency  or  in  the  annual  accumulated  amount  are  to  be expected; however, an important modification of the seasonal cycle, with a high decrease in rainfall frequency and in the amount collected in spring, is forecasted.
000061318 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/REN2002-00009
000061318 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aAll rights reserved$$uhttp://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/
000061318 590__ $$a1.358$$b2005
000061318 591__ $$aENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES$$b56 / 139 = 0.403$$c2005$$dQ2$$eT2
000061318 591__ $$aMETEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES$$b24 / 47 = 0.511$$c2005$$dQ3$$eT2
000061318 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000061318 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0174-789X$$aAsin, J.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000061318 7102_ $$12007$$2265$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDepartamento de Métodos Estadísticos$$cEstadística e Investigación Operativa
000061318 773__ $$g28, 3 (2005), 183-197$$pClim. res.$$tCLIMATE RESEARCH$$x0936-577X
000061318 8564_ $$s428562$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61318/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000061318 8564_ $$s93219$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61318/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000061318 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:61318$$particulos$$pdriver
000061318 951__ $$a2017-05-18-10:32:42
000061318 980__ $$aARTICLE