106212 20240311102823.0 doi 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109837 sideral 119894 ART-2020-119894 eng Gangoso, L. Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain 2020 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Changes in environmental conditions, whether related or not to human activities, are continuously modifying the geographic distribution of vectors, which in turn affects the dynamics and distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases. Determining the main ecological drivers of vector distribution and how predicted changes in these drivers may alter their future distributions is therefore of major importance. However, the drivers of vector populations are largely specific to each vector species and region. Here, we identify the most important human-activity-related and bioclimatic predictors affecting the current distribution and habitat suitability of the mosquito Culex pipiens and potential future changes in its distribution in Spain. We determined the niche of occurrence (NOO) of the species, which considers only those areas lying within the range of suitable environmental conditions using presence data. Although almost ubiquitous, the distribution of Cx. pipiens is mostly explained by elevation and the degree of urbanization but also, to a lesser extent, by mean temperatures during the wettest season and temperature seasonality. The combination of these predictors highlights the existence of a heterogeneous pattern of habitat suitability, with most suitable areas located in the southern and northeastern coastal areas of Spain, and unsuitable areas located at higher altitude and in colder regions. Future climatic predictions indicate a net decrease in distribution of up to 29.55%, probably due to warming and greater temperature oscillations. Despite these predicted changes in vector distribution, their effects on the incidence of infectious diseases are, however, difficult to forecast since different processes such as local adaptation to temperature, vector-pathogen interactions, and human-derived changes in landscape may play important roles in shaping the future dynamics of pathogen transmission. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/ISCIII-ERDF-ESF/PI18-00850 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/CGL2012-30759 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/PGC2018-095704-B-100 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by-nc-nd http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ 6.498 2020 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH 16 / 202 = 0.079 2020 Q1 T1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 36 / 273 = 0.132 2020 Q1 T1 1.46 2020 Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 2020 Q1 Biochemistry 2020 Q1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Aragonés, D. Martínez-de la Puente, J. Lucientes, J. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0003-0663-8411 Delacour-Estrella, S. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-7046-2997 Estrada Peña, R. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-6279-0453 Montalvo, T. Bueno-Marí, R. Bravo-Barriga, D. Frontera, E. Marqués, E. Ruiz-Arrondo, I. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-8198-8118 Muñoz, A. Oteo, J.A. Miranda, M.A. Barceló, C. Arias Vázquez, M.S. Silva-Torres, M.I. Ferraguti, M. Magallanes, S. Muriel, J. Marzal, A. Aranda, C. Ruiz, S. González, M.A. Morchón, R. Gómez-Barroso, D. Figuerola, J. 1009 773 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Patología Animal Área Sanidad Animal 1009 X Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Patología Animal Proy. investigación HRA 188 (2020), 109837 [11 pp.] Environ. res. Environmental Research 0013-9351 937969 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/106212/files/texto_completo.pdf Postprint 1346661 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/106212/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Postprint oai:zaguan.unizar.es:106212 articulos driver 2024-03-11-10:22:49 ARTICLE