000109478 001__ 109478
000109478 005__ 20240319080947.0
000109478 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1007/s00477-021-02157-z
000109478 0248_ $$2sideral$$a125903
000109478 037__ $$aART-2022-125903
000109478 041__ $$aeng
000109478 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-9052-9674$$aCebrián, Ana C.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000109478 245__ $$aSpatio-temporal analysis of the extent of an extreme heat event
000109478 260__ $$c2022
000109478 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000109478 5203_ $$aEvidence of global warming induced from the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere suggests more frequent warm days and heat waves. The concept of an extreme heat event (EHE), defined locally based on exceedance of a suitable local threshold, enables us to capture the notion of a period of persistent extremely high temperatures. Modeling for extreme heat events is customarily implemented using time series of temperatures collected at a set of locations. Since spatial dependence is anticipated in the occurrence of EHE’s, a joint model for the time series, incorporating spatial dependence is needed. Recent work by Schliep et al. (J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc 184(3):1070–1092, 2021) develops a space-time model based on a point-referenced collection of temperature time series that enables the prediction of both the incidence and characteristics of EHE’s occurring at any location in a study region. The contribution here is to introduce a formal definition of the notion of the spatial extent of an extreme heat event and then to employ output from the Schliep et al. (J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc 184(3):1070–1092, 2021) modeling work to illustrate the notion. For a specified region and a given day, the definition takes the form of a block average of indicator functions over the region. Our risk assessment examines extents for the Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón in northeastern Spain. We calculate daily, seasonal and decadal averages of the extents for two subregions in this comunidad. We generalize our definition to capture extents of persistence of extreme heat and make comparisons across decades to reveal evidence of increasing extent over time.
000109478 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO-AEI-FEDER/PID2019-106099RB-C44$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-116873GB-I00
000109478 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
000109478 590__ $$a4.2$$b2022
000109478 591__ $$aSTATISTICS & PROBABILITY$$b10 / 125 = 0.08$$c2022$$dQ1$$eT1
000109478 591__ $$aWATER RESOURCES$$b27 / 103 = 0.262$$c2022$$dQ2$$eT1
000109478 591__ $$aENGINEERING, CIVIL$$b37 / 139 = 0.266$$c2022$$dQ2$$eT1
000109478 591__ $$aENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES$$b104 / 275 = 0.378$$c2022$$dQ2$$eT2
000109478 591__ $$aENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL$$b28 / 55 = 0.509$$c2022$$dQ3$$eT2
000109478 594__ $$a6.5$$b2022
000109478 592__ $$a0.814$$b2022
000109478 593__ $$aEnvironmental Science (miscellaneous)$$c2022$$dQ1
000109478 593__ $$aEnvironmental Engineering$$c2022$$dQ1
000109478 593__ $$aWater Science and Technology$$c2022$$dQ1
000109478 593__ $$aSafety, Risk, Reliability and Quality$$c2022$$dQ1
000109478 593__ $$aEnvironmental Chemistry$$c2022$$dQ2
000109478 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000109478 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0174-789X$$aAsín, Jesús$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000109478 700__ $$aGelfand, Alan E.
000109478 700__ $$aSchliep, Erin M.
000109478 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-3859-0248$$aCastillo-Mateo, Jorge$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000109478 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-2617-4167$$aBeamonte, María A.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000109478 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-7974-7435$$aAbaurrea, Jesús$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000109478 7102_ $$12007$$2265$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Métodos Estadísticos$$cÁrea Estadís. Investig. Opera.
000109478 7102_ $$14014$$2623$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Economía Aplicada$$cÁrea Métodos Cuant.Econ.Empres
000109478 773__ $$g36 (2022), 2737–2751$$pStoch. environ. res. risk assess.$$tSTOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT$$x1436-3240
000109478 8564_ $$s933163$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/109478/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000109478 8564_ $$s2351178$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/109478/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000109478 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:109478$$particulos$$pdriver
000109478 951__ $$a2024-03-18-12:44:33
000109478 980__ $$aARTICLE