doi:10.1016/j.ijcha.2021.100851engBiccler, J.Bollaerts, K.Vora, P.Sole, E.García Rodriguez, L.A.Lanas, A.Langley, R.E.Soriano Gabarró, M.Public health impact of low-dose aspirin on colorectal cancer, cardiovascular disease and safety in the UK – Results from micro-simulation modelART-2021-127043Background: Low-dose aspirin therapy reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease and may have a positive effect on the prevention of colorectal cancer. We evaluated the population-level expected effect of regular low-dose aspirin use on cardiovascular disease (CVD), colorectal cancer (CRC), gastrointestinal bleeding, symptomatic peptic ulcers, and intracranial hemorrhage, using a microsimulation study design. Methods: We used individual-level state transition modeling to assess the impact of aspirin in populations aged 50–59 or 60–69 years old indicated for low-dose aspirin usage for primary or secondary CVD prevention. Model parameters were based on data from governmental agencies from the UK or recent publications. Results: In the 50–59 years cohort, a decrease in incidence rates (IRs per 100 000 person years) of non-fatal CVD (-203 and -794) and fatal CVD (-97 and-381) was reported in the primary and secondary CVD prevention setting, respectively. The IR reduction of CRC (-96 and -93) was similar for primary and secondary CVD prevention. The IR increase of non-fatal (116 and 119) and fatal safety events (6 and 6) was similar for primary and secondary CVD prevention. Similar results were obtained for the 60–69 years cohort. Conclusions: The decrease in fatal CVD and CRC events was larger than the increase in fatal safety events and this difference was more pronounced when low-dose aspirin was used for secondary compared to primary CVD prevention. These results provide a comprehensive image of the expected effect of regular low-dose aspirin therapy in a UK population indicated to use aspirin for CVD prevention. © 20212021http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/11794810.1016/j.ijcha.2021.100851http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/117948oai:zaguan.unizar.es:117948IJC Heart and Vasculature 36 (2021), 100851 [8 pp]by-nc-ndhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess