120971 20240319081014.0 doi 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2022.104487 sideral 131457 ART-2022-131457 eng Gelabert, P.J. Spatially explicit modeling of the probability of land abandonment in the Spanish Pyrenees 2022 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Many mountain regions in Europe have experienced massive migrations towards metropolitan areas, with far-reaching implications for societies and the environment, especially croplands and grasslands. In this work, we tailored a geospatial framework to envisage the probability of land abandonment in the Spanish Pyrenees at moderate spatial resolution. We predicted the likelihood of land abandonment combining machine learning algorithms, geospatial data and historical observations of land abandonment in the period 1980 to 2019. The model attained a high predictive performance (AUC = 0.85) at a moderate resolution (30 m), providing insights into the spatial behavior of the potential for both abandonment and its main driving forces. The highest rates of abandonment were found in rural settlements and towns in bottom valleys where tourism and recreational activities have proliferated over the years. Fast and comfortable connections between the main metropolitan areas (e.g. Barcelona and Zaragoza) and the mountain regions foster touristic activity and lead to the creation of new settlements. Ecotourism and mountain sports promote land abandonment as evidenced by the high probability predicted over the Central Pyrenees (from Pallars Jussà to Alto Gállego counties). Our results provide spatially explicit probability and uncertainty outputs, providing insights into site-specific abandonment potential and the influence of its drivers. These results can substantially assist land planners in decision-making, enabling assessments at local scale. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/FECYT/IMAGINE CGL2016-80400-R info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by-nc-nd http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ 9.1 2022 ECOLOGY 7 / 171 = 0.041 2022 Q1 T1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 11 / 128 = 0.086 2022 Q1 T1 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING 3 / 40 = 0.075 2022 Q1 T1 URBAN STUDIES 1 / 43 = 0.023 2022 Q1 T1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL 2 / 49 = 0.041 2022 Q1 T1 GEOGRAPHY 2 / 86 = 0.023 2022 Q1 T1 2.065 2022 Ecology 2022 Q1 Urban Studies 2022 Q1 Nature and Landscape Conservation 2022 Q1 Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law 2022 Q1 14.4 2022 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Rodrigues, M. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-0477-0796 Vidal-Macua, J.J. Ameztegui, A. Vega-Garcia, C. 3006 010 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ. Área Análisis Geográfico Regi. 226 (2022), 104487 [11 pp.] Landsc. urban plan. LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING 0169-2046 11596900 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/120971/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2321564 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/120971/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:120971 articulos driver 2024-03-18-15:28:39 ARTICLE