000121062 001__ 121062 000121062 005__ 20240319080945.0 000121062 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1080/00472778.2020.1750302 000121062 0248_ $$2sideral$$a119263 000121062 037__ $$aART-2022-119263 000121062 041__ $$aeng 000121062 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-6468-0944$$aFuertes-Callén, Yolanda$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000121062 245__ $$aPredicting startup survival using first years financial statements 000121062 260__ $$c2022 000121062 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000121062 5203_ $$aNumerous articles demonstrate the usefulness of financial ratios in predicting the bankruptcy of companies, but in the case of new companies their usefulness is questionable. Many of the firms that are successful today made few profits when they were first created. On the other hand, structural inertia from the theory of organizational ecology and the “survival of the fitter” principle advocate that companies that are healthy in their early years will go ahead in greater proportion than those that start with many difficulties. Our empirical study used financial data from a sample of 6, 167 newborn Spanish startup companies, analyzing their evolution up to eight years later. We found healthier financial indicators in the first years of startup companies that survived eight years than in those that failed, supporting the organizational ecology theory. We found statistically significant differences in profitability, productivity, liquidity, leverage, and size. The models developed showed predictive capacity, but they did not reach that of the bankruptcy models made with mature companies. The analyzed period corresponded to a period of economic crisis. The study was repeated with data from another noncrisis period to enhance the validity of the results, and obtained similar results. 000121062 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/S14-2$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/ECO2013-45568-R 000121062 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/es/ 000121062 590__ $$a6.2$$b2022 000121062 592__ $$a1.556$$b2022 000121062 591__ $$aMANAGEMENT$$b70 / 227 = 0.308$$c2022$$dQ2$$eT1 000121062 593__ $$aBusiness, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)$$c2022$$dQ1 000121062 593__ $$aStrategy and Management$$c2022$$dQ1 000121062 593__ $$aManagement of Technology and Innovation$$c2022$$dQ1 000121062 594__ $$a11.5$$b2022 000121062 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion 000121062 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-5557-0380$$aCuellar-Fernández, Beatriz$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000121062 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-2596-9638$$aSerrano-Cinca, Carlos$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000121062 7102_ $$14002$$2230$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Contabilidad y Finanzas$$cÁrea Economía Finan. y Contab. 000121062 773__ $$g60, 6 (2022), 1314-1350$$pJ. small bus. manage.$$tJournal of Small Business Management$$x0047-2778 000121062 8564_ $$s806565$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/121062/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yPostprint 000121062 8564_ $$s599453$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/121062/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yPostprint 000121062 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:121062$$particulos$$pdriver 000121062 951__ $$a2024-03-18-12:31:15 000121062 980__ $$aARTICLE