124383 20241125101131.0 doi 10.1002/joc.7924 sideral 132744 ART-2023-132744 eng Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. (orcid)0000-0003-2892-518X Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models 2023 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Using observations and model simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively), this study evaluated changes in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation over Bolivia from 1950 to 2019. Results demonstrate that observed precipitation is characterized by strong interannual and decadal variability. However, long-term precipitation trends were not identified on the annual scale. Similarly, changes in seasonal precipitation were almost nonsignificant (p > .05) for the study period. Spatially, albeit with its complex orography, no substantial regional variations in observed precipitation trends can be identified across Bolivia. In contrast, long-term precipitation trends, based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, suggest a dominance of negative trends, mainly during austral winter (JJA) (−10%) and spring (SON) (−15%). These negative trends were more pronounced in the lowlands of Bolivia (−20%). Overall, these contradictory results highlight the need for validating precipitation trend outputs from model simulations, especially in areas of complex topography like Bolivia. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN-FEDER/CGL2017-82216-R info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN-FEDER/PCI2019-103631 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2019-108589RA-I00 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by-nc-nd http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ 3.5 2023 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 41 / 110 = 0.373 2023 Q2 T2 1.221 2023 Atmospheric Science 2023 Q2 7.5 2023 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Maillard, Oswaldo Peña-Angulo, Dhais Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-5333-2285 Domínguez-Castro, Fernando (orcid)0000-0003-3085-7040 Noguera, Iván Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge Azorin-Molina, César Juez, Carmelo Guijarro, José Antonio Halifa-Marín, Amar El Kenawy, Ahmed 3006 430 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ. Área Geografía Física 43, 3 (2023), 1431-1447 Int. j. climatol. International Journal of Climatology 0899-8418 9811116 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/124383/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2185299 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/124383/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:124383 articulos driver 2024-11-22-11:58:58 ARTICLE