000125360 001__ 125360
000125360 005__ 20241125101148.0
000125360 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13545
000125360 0248_ $$2sideral$$a133073
000125360 037__ $$aART-2023-133073
000125360 041__ $$aeng
000125360 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-8471-3224$$aLafuente, M.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125360 245__ $$aA multistate model and its standalone tool to predict hospital and ICU occupancy by patients with COVID-19
000125360 260__ $$c2023
000125360 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000125360 5203_ $$aObjective: This study aims to build a multistate model and describe a predictive tool for estimating the daily number of intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital beds occupied by patients with coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19). Material and methods: The estimation is based on the simulation of patient trajectories using a multistate model where the transition probabilities between states are estimated via competing risks and cure models. The input to the tool includes the dates of COVID-19 diagnosis, admission to hospital, admission to ICU, discharge from ICU and discharge from hospital or death of positive cases from a selected initial date to the current moment. Our tool is validated using 98,496 cases positive for severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 extracted from the Aragón Healthcare Records Database from July 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021. Results: The tool demonstrates good performance for the 7- and 14-days forecasts using the actual positive cases, and shows good accuracy among three scenarios corresponding to different stages of the pandemic: 1) up-scenario, 2) peak-scenario and 3) down-scenario. Long term predictions (two months) also show good accuracy, while those using Holt-Winters positive case estimates revealed acceptable accuracy to day 14 onwards, with relative errors of 8.8%. Discussion: In the era of the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals must evolve in a dynamic way. Our prediction tool is designed to predict hospital occupancy to improve healthcare resource management without information about clinical history of patients. Conclusions: Our easy-to-use and freely accessible tool (https://github.com/peterman65) shows good performance and accuracy for forecasting the daily number of hospital and ICU beds required for patients with COVID-19.
000125360 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E46-20R$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-116873GB-I00
000125360 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc-nd$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
000125360 590__ $$a3.4$$b2023
000125360 592__ $$a0.617$$b2023
000125360 591__ $$aMULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES$$b28 / 134 = 0.209$$c2023$$dQ1$$eT1
000125360 593__ $$aMultidisciplinary$$c2023$$dQ1
000125360 594__ $$a4.5$$b2023
000125360 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000125360 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-7615-2559$$aLópez, F. J.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125360 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-2988-7728$$aMateo, P. M.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125360 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-9052-9674$$aCebrián, A. C.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125360 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0174-789X$$aAsín, J.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125360 700__ $$aMoler, J. A.
000125360 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-0178-4567$$aBorque-Fernando, Á.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125360 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-3007-302X$$aEsteban, L. M.
000125360 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-0953-6277$$aPérez-Palomares, A.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125360 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-6474-2252$$aSanz, G.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125360 7102_ $$12007$$2265$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Métodos Estadísticos$$cÁrea Estadís. Investig. Opera.
000125360 7102_ $$11013$$2817$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Cirugía$$cÁrea Urología
000125360 773__ $$g9, 2 (2023), e13545 [18 pp.]$$pHeliyon$$tHeliyon$$x2405-8440
000125360 8564_ $$s4943488$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/125360/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000125360 8564_ $$s1814812$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/125360/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000125360 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:125360$$particulos$$pdriver
000125360 951__ $$a2024-11-22-12:05:23
000125360 980__ $$aARTICLE