000125948 001__ 125948
000125948 005__ 20241125101133.0
000125948 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1038/s41598-023-31614-8
000125948 0248_ $$2sideral$$a133582
000125948 037__ $$aART-2023-133582
000125948 041__ $$aeng
000125948 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-7530-2626$$aMiguel Arribas, Alfonso de$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125948 245__ $$aAssessing the effectiveness of perimeter lockdowns as a response to epidemics at the urban scale
000125948 260__ $$c2023
000125948 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000125948 5203_ $$aFrom September 2020 to May 2021 Madrid region (Spain) followed a rather unique non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) by establishing a strategy of perimeter lockdowns (PLs) that banned travels to and from areas satisfying certain epidemiological risk criteria. PLs were pursued to avoid harsher restrictions, but some studies have found that the particular implementation by Madrid authorities was rather ineffective. Based on Madrid’s case, we devise a general, minimal framework to investigate the PLs effectiveness by using a data-driven metapopulation epidemiological model of a city, and explore under which circumstances the PLs could be a good NPI. The model is informed with real mobility data from Madrid to contextualize its results, but it can be generalized elsewhere. The lowest lockdown activation threshold Θ considered (14-day cumulative incidence rate of 20 cases per every 105 inhabitants) shows a prevalence reduction >20% with respect to the scenario Θ=103, more akin to the case of Madrid, and assuming no further mitigation. Only the combination of Θ=20 and mobility reduction >90% can avoid PLs for more than >20% of the system. The combination of low Θ and strong local transmissibility reduction is key to minimize the impact, but the latter is harder to achieve given that we assume a situation with highly mitigated transmission, resembling the one observed during the second wave of COVID-19 in Madrid. Thus, we conclude that a generalized lockdown is hard to avoid under any realistic setting if only this strategy is applied.
000125948 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E36-20R$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-115800GB-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/RYC2021-033226-I$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/UZ/UZ-SANTANDER/2020-0274
000125948 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
000125948 590__ $$a3.8$$b2023
000125948 592__ $$a0.9$$b2023
000125948 591__ $$aMULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES$$b25 / 134 = 0.187$$c2023$$dQ1$$eT1
000125948 593__ $$aMultidisciplinary$$c2023$$dQ1
000125948 594__ $$a7.5$$b2023
000125948 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000125948 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-1192-8707$$aAleta, Alberto$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125948 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0895-1893$$aMoreno, Yamir$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000125948 7102_ $$12004$$2405$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Física Teórica$$cÁrea Física Teórica
000125948 773__ $$g13 (2023), 4474 [11 pp.]$$pSci. rep. (Nat. Publ. Group)$$tScientific reports (Nature Publishing Group)$$x2045-2322
000125948 8564_ $$s12600585$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/125948/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000125948 8564_ $$s2642712$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/125948/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000125948 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:125948$$particulos$$pdriver
000125948 951__ $$a2024-11-22-11:59:40
000125948 980__ $$aARTICLE