Modified SEIR epidemic model including asymptomatic and hospitalized cases with correct demographic evolution

Selva Castañeda, Antonio Rafael ; Ramírez-Torres, Erick Eduardo ; Valdés-García, Luis Eugenio ; Morandeira-Padrón, Hilda María ; Yanez, Diana Sedal ; Montijano, Juan I. (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Bergues Cabrales , Luis Enrique

Resumen: The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the time behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients in an epidemic, taking into account the effect of the demographic evolution. Unlike most of the recent studies where a constant ratio of new individuals is considered, we consider a more correct assumption that the growth ratio is proportional to the total population, following a Logistic law, as is usual in population growth studies for humans and animals. An exhaustive theoretical study is carried out and the basic reproduction number is computed from the model equations. It is proved that if then the disease-free manifold is globally asymptotically stable, that is, the epidemics remits. Global and local stability of the equilibrium points is also studied. Numerical simulations are used to show the agreement between numerical results and theoretical properties. The model is fitted to experimental data corresponding to the pandemic evolution of COVID-19 in the Republic of Cuba, showing a proper behaviour of infected cases which let us think that can provide a correct estimation of asymptomatic cases. In conclusion, the model seems to be an adequate tool for the study and control of infectious diseases.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2023.128122

Año: 2023

Publicado en: Applied Mathematics and Computation 456 (2023), 128122 [23 pp.]
ISSN: 0096-3003

Factor impacto JCR: 3.5 (2023)

Categ. JCR: MATHEMATICS, APPLIED rank: 10 / 332 = 0.03 (2023) - Q1 - T1

Factor impacto CITESCORE: 7.9 - Computational Mathematics (Q1) - Applied Mathematics (Q1)

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 1.026 - Computational Mathematics (Q1) - Applied Mathematics (Q1)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2019-109045GB-C31

Tipo y forma: Artículo (Versión definitiva)

Área (Departamento): Área Matemática Aplicada (Dpto. Matemática Aplicada)