Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia
Resumen: This research studies the evolution of COVID-19 crude incident rates, effective reproduction number R(t) and their relationship with incidence spatial autocorrelation patterns in the 19 months following the disease outbreak in Catalonia (Spain). A cross-sectional ecological panel design based on n = 371 health-care geographical units is used. Five general outbreaks are described, systematically preceded by generalized values of R(t) > 1 in the two previous weeks. No clear regularities concerning possible initial focus appear when comparing waves. As for autocorrelation, we identify a wave’s baseline pattern in which global Moran’s I increases rapidly in the first weeks of the outbreak to descend later. However, some waves significantly depart from the baseline. In the simulations, both baseline pattern and departures can be reproduced when measures aimed at reducing mobility and virus transmissibility are introduced. Spatial autocorrelation is inherently contingent on the outbreak phase and is also substantially modified by external interventions affecting human behavior.
Idioma: Inglés
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-36169-2
Año: 2023
Publicado en: Scientific reports (Nature Publishing Group) 13 (2023), 9709 [11 pp.]
ISSN: 2045-2322

Factor impacto JCR: 3.8 (2023)
Categ. JCR: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES rank: 25 / 134 = 0.187 (2023) - Q1 - T1
Factor impacto CITESCORE: 7.5 - Multidisciplinary (Q1)

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 0.9 - Multidisciplinary (Q1)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-117029RB-I00
Tipo y forma: Article (Published version)
Área (Departamento): Área Física Teórica (Dpto. Física Teórica)

Creative Commons You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.


Exportado de SIDERAL (2024-11-22-12:02:46)


Visitas y descargas

Este artículo se encuentra en las siguientes colecciones:
Articles > Artículos por área > Física Teórica



 Record created 2023-07-28, last modified 2024-11-25


Versión publicada:
 PDF
Rate this document:

Rate this document:
1
2
3
 
(Not yet reviewed)