Global warming reshapes European pyroregions

Galizia, L. F. ; Barbero, R. ; Rodrigues, M. (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Ruffault, J. ; Pimont, F. ; Curt, T.

Resumen: Wildland fire is expected to increase in response to global warming, yet little is known about future changes to fire regimes in Europe. Here, we developed a pyrogeography based on statistical fire models to better understand how global warming reshapes fire regimes across the continent. We identified five large-scale pyroregions with different levels of area burned, fire frequency, intensity, length of fire period, size distribution, and seasonality. All other things being equal, global warming was found to alter the distribution of these pyroregions, with an expansion of the most fire prone pyroregions ranging respectively from 50% to 130% under 2° and 4°C global warming scenarios. Our estimates indicate a strong amplification of fire across parts of southern Europe and a subsequent shift toward new fire regimes, implying substantial socio-ecological impacts in the absence of mitigation or adaptation measures.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003182

Año: 2023

Publicado en: Earths Future 11, 5 (2023), e2022EF003182 [14 pp.]
ISSN: 2328-4277

Factor impacto JCR: 7.3 (2023)

Categ. JCR: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES rank: 38 / 358 = 0.106 (2023) - Q1 - T1
Categ. JCR: METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES rank: 7 / 110 = 0.064 (2023) - Q1 - T1
Categ. JCR: GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY rank: 13 / 254 = 0.051 (2023) - Q1 - T1

Factor impacto CITESCORE: 11.0 - Environmental Science (all) (Q1) - Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) (Q1)

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 2.444 - Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) (Q1) - Environmental Science (miscellaneous) (Q1)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-116556RA-I00

Tipo y forma: Artículo (Versión definitiva)

Área (Departamento): Área Análisis Geográfico Regi. (Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.)