000127631 001__ 127631 000127631 005__ 20230921142939.0 000127631 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1051/e3sconf/202015203007 000127631 0248_ $$2sideral$$a117311 000127631 037__ $$aART-2020-117311 000127631 041__ $$aeng 000127631 100__ $$aMonteiro, Claudio 000127631 245__ $$aA strategy for electricity buyers in futures markets 000127631 260__ $$c2020 000127631 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000127631 5203_ $$aThis paper presents an original trading strategy for electricity buyers in futures markets. The strategy applies a medium-term electricity price forecasting model to predict the monthly average spot price which is used to evaluate the Risk Premium for a physical delivery under a monthly electricity futures contract. The proposed trading strategy aims to provide an advantage relatively to the traditional strategy of electricity buyers (used as benchmark), anticipating the good/wrong decision of buying electricity in the futures market instead in the day-ahead market. The mid-term monthly average spot price forecasting model, which supports the trading strategy, uses only information available from futures and spot markets at the decision moment. Both the new trading strategy and the monthly average spot price forecasting model, proposed in this paper, have been successfully tested with historical data of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), although they could be applied to other electricity markets. 000127631 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO-FEDER/ENE2016-78509-C3-3-P 000127631 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ 000127631 592__ $$a0.203$$b2020 000127631 593__ $$aEarth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)$$c2020 000127631 593__ $$aEnvironmental Science (miscellaneous)$$c2020 000127631 593__ $$aEnergy (miscellaneous)$$c2020 000127631 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 000127631 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-5502-4232$$aRamirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000127631 700__ $$aFernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo 000127631 7102_ $$15009$$2535$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Ingeniería Eléctrica$$cÁrea Ingeniería Eléctrica 000127631 773__ $$g152 (2020), 1-5$$pE3S web conf.$$tE3S web of conferences$$x2555-0403 000127631 8564_ $$s952793$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/127631/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada 000127631 8564_ $$s2986407$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/127631/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada 000127631 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:127631$$particulos$$pdriver 000127631 951__ $$a2023-09-21-13:01:25 000127631 980__ $$aARTICLE