000130523 001__ 130523 000130523 005__ 20240125162931.0 000130523 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1111/bju.12532 000130523 0248_ $$2sideral$$a83377 000130523 037__ $$aART-2014-83377 000130523 041__ $$aeng 000130523 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-0178-4567$$aBorque, A.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000130523 245__ $$aImplementing the use of nomograms by choosing threshold points in predictive models: 2012 updated Partin Tables vs a European predictive nomogram for organ-confined disease in prostate cancer 000130523 260__ $$c2014 000130523 5203_ $$aObjectives To implement the use of nomograms in clinical practice showing how to choose thresholds in nomograms’ predictions to select risk groups. To validate and compare the predictive ability and clinical utility of the Hospital Universitario ‘Miguel Servet’ (HUMS) and the updated Partin Tables 2012 (PT-2012) nomograms to predict organ-confined disease (OCD) after radical prostatectomy (RP). Patients and Methods Cohort of 1285 patients with prostate cancer treated with RP at Instituto Valenciano de Oncología (IVO) between 1986 and 2011. The predictive value of the nomograms was assessed by means of calibration curves, discrimination ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and probability density functions). The clinical utility was evaluated through Vickers’ decision curves and thresholds were chosen through probability density functions. Results The calibration curves showed a minimal underestimation in low probabilities (<20%), a minimal overestimation in high probabilities (>50%) in the HUMS nomogram and a regular minimal overestimation in the PT-2012. Their AUC of 0.7285 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7010–0.7559) and 0.7288 (95%CI 0.7013–0.7562) respectively, show an adequate discrimination ability for both predictive models in the IVO cohort. The decision curves show similar net benefits for both models. In this study we advocate for a threshold of 53% for the identification of OCD. Conclusions The HUMS-nomogram and the PT-2012 predictions of OCD confirm their utility in a contemporary cohort of patients. Patients with a probability of OCD >53% should be classified as OCD, helping physicians to better counsel their patients. A selection of adequate thresholds, as presented in this paper, makes nomograms more accessible tools. 000130523 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aAll rights reserved$$uhttp://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/ 000130523 590__ $$a3.533$$b2014 000130523 591__ $$aUROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY$$b14 / 77 = 0.182$$c2014$$dQ1$$eT1 000130523 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 000130523 700__ $$aRubio-Briones, J. 000130523 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-3007-302X$$aEsteban, L.M. 000130523 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-6474-2252$$aSanz, G.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000130523 700__ $$aDomínguez-Escrig, J. 000130523 700__ $$aRamírez-Backhaus, M. 000130523 700__ $$aCalatrava, A. 000130523 700__ $$aSolsona, E. 000130523 7102_ $$12007$$2265$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Métodos Estadísticos$$cÁrea Estadís. Investig. Opera. 000130523 7102_ $$11004$$2817$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Cirugía,Ginecol.Obstetr.$$cÁrea Urología 000130523 773__ $$g113, 6 (2014), 878-886$$pBJU int.$$tBJU international$$x1464-4096 000130523 8564_ $$s610629$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/130523/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada 000130523 8564_ $$s2487816$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/130523/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada 000130523 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:130523$$particulos$$pdriver 000130523 951__ $$a2024-01-25-15:17:16 000130523 980__ $$aARTICLE