130688 20240201145619.0 doi 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.11.015 sideral 122497 ART-2021-122497 eng Bolea, L. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-6499-6837 Disintegration scenarios in the European Union: A case study of Eastern European economies 2021 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted This paper examines the progress of countries’ integration within the EU, and the expansion to include many Eastern European countries in this phenomenon. We create a multisectoral and multiregional input-output model (MRIO) to study a group of “counterfactuals” to evaluate the economic integration/disintegration phenomenon in this context. As an initial experiment, we conduct a study of the “non-integration” of Eastern European countries. On the basis of the MRIO model and, inspired by the synthetic indicators methodology and hypothetical extraction methods, we first study the trends in their trade relationships and technological and structural composition. Second, we design hypothetical scenarios based on the behavior observed in these trends to analyze the contribution of the disintegration process to economic growth and structural specialization. We find that Eastern Europe is highly vulnerable to the effects of trade with other European countries; the impact of a possible exit of Eastern countries would be almost three times greater for those countries than for the rest of Europe. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA-FEDER/S40-R20 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/BES-2017-080087 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess All rights reserved http://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/ 3.875 2021 ECONOMICS 91 / 381 = 0.239 2021 Q1 T1 1.065 2021 Economics and Econometrics 2021 Q1 4.8 2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Duarte, R. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0003-3113-1698 Hewings, G.J.D. Sánchez-Chóliz, J. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-9521-4156 4000 415 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Análisis Económico Área Fund. Análisis Económico 95 (2021), 1-12 Econ. model. Economic Modelling 0264-9993 1369315 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/130688/files/texto_completo.pdf Postprint 1303410 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/130688/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Postprint oai:zaguan.unizar.es:130688 articulos driver 2024-02-01-14:52:54 ARTICLE