000133225 001__ 133225 000133225 005__ 20240410085328.0 000133225 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1007/s11150-019-09449-y 000133225 0248_ $$2sideral$$a112358 000133225 037__ $$aART-2019-112358 000133225 041__ $$aeng 000133225 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-1065-1304$$aBellido, Héctor$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000133225 245__ $$aFertility and the business cycle: the European case 000133225 260__ $$c2019 000133225 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000133225 5203_ $$aThis paper analyzes the role of the business cycle in fertility, using data from 30 European countries for the period 1993 to 2013. We find that the unemployment rate, used as a proxy for the evolution of the business cycle, negatively affects the fertility rate, although the effect of business cycle variations is quite moderate. Since, with the available data for the period, it is not possible to check whether recent changes in the business cycle have had a permanent effect on the fertility behavior of women, our findings address only short-term results. These are maintained when we control for the welfare generosity of the European countries, in addition to country-level socio-economic and institutional factors, along with unobservable characteristics that can vary by country and/or over time. Only under two scenarios, very flexible labor markets and high levels of gender equality, is it possible to predict a potential counter-cyclical response of fertility. Supplementary analysis, developed to explore the impact of the business cycle on the entire distribution of the fertility rate, indicates that the effect of unemployment is strong in the bottom quantiles, corresponding to low fertility rates, indicating that economic uncertainty discourages fertility decisions even more strongly in those societies where having a child is costly. 000133225 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/S32-17R 000133225 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aAll rights reserved$$uhttp://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/ 000133225 590__ $$a1.179$$b2019 000133225 591__ $$aECONOMICS$$b219 / 371 = 0.59$$c2019$$dQ3$$eT2 000133225 592__ $$a1.189$$b2019 000133225 593__ $$aSocial Sciences (miscellaneous)$$c2019$$dQ1 000133225 593__ $$aEconomics and Econometrics$$c2019$$dQ1 000133225 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion 000133225 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-1944-4790$$aMarcén, Miriam$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000133225 7102_ $$14000$$2415$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Análisis Económico$$cÁrea Fund. Análisis Económico 000133225 773__ $$g17 (2019), 1289-1319$$pReview of Economics of the Household$$tREVIEW OF ECONOMICS OF THE HOUSEHOLD$$x1569-5239 000133225 8564_ $$s690882$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/133225/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yPostprint 000133225 8564_ $$s1603362$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/133225/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yPostprint 000133225 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:133225$$particulos$$pdriver 000133225 951__ $$a2024-04-10-08:35:43 000133225 980__ $$aARTICLE