135173 20260217205600.0 doi 10.1016/j.renene.2024.120540 sideral 138513 ART-2024-138513 eng Lujano-Rojas, Juan M. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-5801-0602 Design of small-scale hybrid energy systems taking into account generation and demand uncertainties 2024 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted The adoption of energy systems powered by renewable sources requires substantial economic investments. Hence, selecting system components of an appropriate size becomes a critical step, which is significantly influenced by their distinct characteristics. Furthermore, the availability of renewable energy varies over time, and estimating this availability introduces considerable uncertainty. In this paper, we present a technique for the optimal design of hybrid energy systems that accounts for the uncertainty associated with resource estimation. Our method is based on stochastic programming theory and employs a surrogate model to estimate battery lifespan using a feedforward neural network (FFNN). The optimization analysis for system design was conducted using a genetic algorithm (GA) and the poplar optimization algorithm (POA). We assessed the effectiveness of the proposed technique through a hypothetical case study. The introduction of a surrogate model, based on an FFNN, resulted in an approximation error of 9.6 % for cost estimation and 20.6 % for battery lifespan estimation. The probabilistic design indicates an energy system cost that is 25.7 % higher than that obtained using a deterministic approach. Both the GA and POA achieved solutions that likely represent the global optimum. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/AEI/PID2021-123172OB-I00 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EUR/AEI/TED2021-129801B-I00 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by-nc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.es 9.1 2024 GREEN & SUSTAINABLE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 18 / 103 = 0.175 2024 Q1 T1 ENERGY & FUELS 34 / 182 = 0.187 2024 Q1 T1 2.08 2024 Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment 2024 Q1 17.6 2024 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Dufo-López, Rodolfo Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-1490-6423 Artal-Sevil, Jesús Sergio Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-7764-235X García-Paricio, Eduardo Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0003-2457-0422 5009 535 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Ingeniería Eléctrica Área Ingeniería Eléctrica 227 (2024), 120540 [17 pp.] Renew. energy Renewable Energy 0960-1481 7883022 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/135173/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2663029 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/135173/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:135173 articulos driver 2026-02-17-20:44:19 ARTICLE