135901 20260218073514.0 doi 10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115119 sideral 138936 ART-2024-138936 eng Wang, Xiangrong Unveiling the reproduction number scaling in characterizing social contagion coverage 2024 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted The spreading of diseases depends critically on the reproduction number, which gives the expected number of new cases produced by infectious individuals during their lifetime. Here we reveal a widespread power-law scaling relationship between the variance and the mean of the reproduction number across simple and complex contagion mechanisms on various network structures. This scaling relation is verified on an empirical scientific collaboration network and analytically studied using generating functions. Specifically, we explore the impact of the scaling law of the reproduction number on the expected size of cascades of contagions. We find that the mean cascade size can be inferred from the mean reproduction number, albeit with limitations in capturing spreading variations. Nonetheless, insights derived from the tail of the distribution of the reproduction number contribute to explaining cascade size variation and allow the distinction between simple and complex contagion mechanisms. Our study sheds light on the intricate dynamics of spreading processes and cascade sizes in social networks, offering valuable insights for managing contagion outbreaks and optimizing responses to emerging threats. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E36-23R-FENOL info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-115800GB-I00 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by-nc-nd https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es 5.6 2024 PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL 1 / 61 = 0.016 2024 Q1 T1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS 7 / 136 = 0.051 2024 Q1 T1 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY 17 / 114 = 0.149 2024 Q1 T1 1.184 2024 Applied Mathematics 2024 Q1 Mathematical Physics 2024 Q1 Statistical and Nonlinear Physics 2024 Q1 Physics and Astronomy (miscellaneous) 2024 Q1 Mathematics (miscellaneous) 2024 Q1 9.9 2024 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Hou, Hongru Lu, Dan Wu, Zongze (orcid)0000-0002-0895-1893 Moreno, Yamir Universidad de Zaragoza 2004 405 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Física Teórica Área Física Teórica 185 (2024), 115119 [8 pp.] Chaos, solitons fractals Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 0960-0779 4034236 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/135901/files/texto_completo.pdf Postprint info:eu-repo/date/embargoEnd/2025-06-18 2184495 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/135901/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Postprint info:eu-repo/date/embargoEnd/2025-06-18 oai:zaguan.unizar.es:135901 articulos driver 2026-02-17-20:29:27 ARTICLE