144598 20260217205523.0 doi 10.1111/nyas.15201 sideral 139409 ART-2024-139409 eng Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. (orcid)0000-0003-2892-518X Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies 2024 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EUR/MICINN/FEDER/TED2021-129152B-C41 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2022-137244OB-I00 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es 4.8 2024 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES 19 / 136 = 0.14 2024 Q1 T1 1.458 2024 Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (miscellaneous) 2024 Q1 Neuroscience (miscellaneous) 2024 Q1 History and Philosophy of Science 2024 Q1 10.3 2024 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Juez, Carmelo (orcid)0000-0002-2985-1023 Potopová, Vera Boincean, Boris Murphy, Conor Domínguez-Castro, Fernando (orcid)0000-0003-3085-7040 Eklundh, Lars Peña-Angulo, Dhais Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-5333-2285 Noguera, Iván Jin, Hongxiao Conradt, Tobias García-Herrera, Ricardo Garrido-Perez, José Manuel Barriopedro, David Gutiérrez, José M. Iturbide, Maialen Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge Kenawy, Ahmed El 3006 430 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ. Área Geografía Física 1538, 1 (2024), 144-161 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 0077-8923 4484645 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/144598/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 1928326 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/144598/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:144598 articulos driver 2026-02-17-20:29:39 ARTICLE