000145513 001__ 145513 000145513 005__ 20241114102851.0 000145513 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1088/1751-8113/41/37/375102 000145513 0248_ $$2sideral$$a66410 000145513 037__ $$aART-2008-66410 000145513 041__ $$aeng 000145513 100__ $$aTejedor, Alejandro 000145513 245__ $$aPredictability of the Large Relaxations in a Cellular Automaton Model 000145513 260__ $$c2008 000145513 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000145513 5203_ $$aA simple one-dimensional cellular automaton model with threshold dynamics is introduced. It is loaded at a uniform rate and unloaded by abrupt relaxations. The cumulative distribution of the size of the relaxations is analytically computed and behaves as a power law with an exponent equal to −1. This coincides with the phenomenological Gutenberg–Richter behavior observed in seismology for the cumulative statistics of earthquakes at the regional or global scale. The key point of the model is the zero-load state of the system after the occurrence of any relaxation, no matter what its size. This leads to an equipartition of probability between all possible load configurations in the system during the successive loading cycles. Each cycle ends with the occurrence of the greatest—or characteristic—relaxation in the system. The duration of the cycles in the model is statistically distributed with a coefficient of variation ranging from 0.5 to 1. The predictability of the characteristic relaxations is evaluated by means of error diagrams. This model illustrates the value taking into account the refractory periods to obtain a considerable gain in the quality of the predictions. 000145513 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aAll rights reserved$$uhttp://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/ 000145513 590__ $$a1.54$$b2008 000145513 591__ $$aPHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY$$b24 / 67 = 0.358$$c2008$$dQ2$$eT2 000145513 591__ $$aPHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL$$b19 / 46 = 0.413$$c2008$$dQ2$$eT2 000145513 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion 000145513 700__ $$aAmbroj, Samuel 000145513 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-7275-9321$$aGómez, Javier B.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000145513 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-4303-9525$$aPacheco, Amalio F.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000145513 7102_ $$12004$$2398$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Física Teórica$$cÁrea Física de la Tierra 000145513 7102_ $$12000$$2685$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Ciencias de la Tierra$$cÁrea Petrología y Geoquímica 000145513 773__ $$g41 (2008), 375102 [16 pp.]$$pJournal of Physics A-Mathematical and Theoretical$$tJournal of Physics A-Mathematical and Theoretical$$x1751-8113 000145513 8564_ $$s307804$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145513/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yPreprint 000145513 8564_ $$s1232822$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145513/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yPreprint 000145513 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:145513$$particulos$$pdriver 000145513 951__ $$a2024-11-14-10:26:26 000145513 980__ $$aARTICLE