145513 20250516123809.0 doi 10.1088/1751-8113/41/37/375102 sideral 66410 ART-2008-66410 eng Tejedor, Alejandro (orcid)0000-0002-3800-5304 Predictability of the Large Relaxations in a Cellular Automaton Model 2008 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted A simple one-dimensional cellular automaton model with threshold dynamics is introduced. It is loaded at a uniform rate and unloaded by abrupt relaxations. The cumulative distribution of the size of the relaxations is analytically computed and behaves as a power law with an exponent equal to −1. This coincides with the phenomenological Gutenberg–Richter behavior observed in seismology for the cumulative statistics of earthquakes at the regional or global scale. The key point of the model is the zero-load state of the system after the occurrence of any relaxation, no matter what its size. This leads to an equipartition of probability between all possible load configurations in the system during the successive loading cycles. Each cycle ends with the occurrence of the greatest—or characteristic—relaxation in the system. The duration of the cycles in the model is statistically distributed with a coefficient of variation ranging from 0.5 to 1. The predictability of the characteristic relaxations is evaluated by means of error diagrams. This model illustrates the value taking into account the refractory periods to obtain a considerable gain in the quality of the predictions. info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess All rights reserved http://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/ 1.54 2008 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY 24 / 67 = 0.358 2008 Q2 T2 PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL 19 / 46 = 0.413 2008 Q2 T2 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion Ambroj, Samuel Gómez, Javier B. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-7275-9321 Pacheco, Amalio F. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-4303-9525 2004 398 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Física Teórica Área Física de la Tierra 2000 685 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Ciencias de la Tierra Área Petrología y Geoquímica 41 (2008), 375102 [16 pp.] Journal of Physics A-Mathematical and Theoretical Journal of Physics A-Mathematical and Theoretical 1751-8113 307804 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145513/files/texto_completo.pdf Preprint 1232822 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145513/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Preprint oai:zaguan.unizar.es:145513 articulos driver 2025-05-16-12:36:46 ARTICLE