145541 20250516123811.0 doi 10.1007/s10955-012-0629-0 sideral 80218 ART-2012-80218 eng Tejedor, Alejandro (orcid)0000-0002-3800-5304 One-Way Markov Process Approach to Repeat Times of Large Earthquakes in Faults 2012 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted One of the uses of Markov Chains is the simulation of the seismic cycle in a fault, i.e. as a renewal model for the repetition of its characteristic earthquakes. This representation is consistent with Reid’s elastic rebound theory. We propose a general one-way Markovian model in which the waiting time distribution, its first moments, coefficient of variation, and functions of error and alarm (related to the predictability of the model) can be obtained analytically. The fact that in any one-way Markov cycle the coefficient of variation of the corresponding distribution of cycle lengths is always lower than one concurs with observations of large earthquakes in seismic faults. The waiting time distribution of one of the limits of this model is the negative binomial distribution; as an application, we use it to fit the Parkfield earthquake series in the San Andreas fault, California. info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess All rights reserved http://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/ 1.4 2012 PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL 22 / 55 = 0.4 2012 Q2 T2 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Gomez, Javier B. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-7275-9321 Pacheco, Amalio F. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-4303-9525 2004 398 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Física Teórica Área Física de la Tierra 2000 685 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Ciencias de la Tierra Área Petrología y Geoquímica 149, 5 (2012), 951-963 J. stat. phys. JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PHYSICS 0022-4715 250425 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145541/files/texto_completo.pdf Postprint 1294601 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145541/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Postprint oai:zaguan.unizar.es:145541 articulos driver 2025-05-16-12:36:54 ARTICLE