000145628 001__ 145628
000145628 005__ 20241114112316.0
000145628 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.3390/e26100888
000145628 0248_ $$2sideral$$a140527
000145628 037__ $$aART-2024-140527
000145628 041__ $$aeng
000145628 100__ $$aRojas-Venegas, José Alejandro
000145628 245__ $$aQuantum-like approaches unveil the intrinsic limits of predictability in compartmental models
000145628 260__ $$c2024
000145628 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000145628 5203_ $$aObtaining accurate forecasts for the evolution of epidemic outbreaks from deterministic compartmental models represents a major theoretical challenge. Recently, it has been shown that these models typically exhibit trajectory degeneracy, as different sets of epidemiological parameters yield comparable predictions at early stages of the outbreak but disparate future epidemic scenarios. In this study, we use the Doi–Peliti approach and extend the classical deterministic compartmental models to a quantum-like formalism to explore whether the uncertainty of epidemic forecasts is also shaped by the stochastic nature of epidemic processes. This approach allows us to obtain a probabilistic ensemble of trajectories, revealing that epidemic uncertainty is not uniform across time, being maximal around the epidemic peak and vanishing at both early and very late stages of the outbreak. Therefore, our results show that, independently of the models’ complexity, the stochasticity of contagion and recovery processes poses a natural constraint for the uncertainty of epidemic forecasts.
000145628 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E36-23R-FENOL$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/JDC2022-048339-I$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-113582GB-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2021-128005NB-C21
000145628 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
000145628 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000145628 700__ $$aGallarta-Sáenz, Pablo$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000145628 700__ $$aHurtado, Rafael G.
000145628 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-3484-6413$$aGómez-Gardeñes, Jesús$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000145628 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-6388-4056$$aSoriano-Paños, David
000145628 7102_ $$12003$$2395$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Física Materia Condensa.$$cÁrea Física Materia Condensada
000145628 773__ $$g26, 10 (2024), 888 [15 pp.]$$pEntropy$$tENTROPY$$x1099-4300
000145628 8564_ $$s1768391$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145628/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000145628 8564_ $$s2572158$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145628/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000145628 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:145628$$particulos$$pdriver
000145628 951__ $$a2024-11-14-10:18:15
000145628 980__ $$aARTICLE