145628 20260217205537.0 doi 10.3390/e26100888 sideral 140527 ART-2024-140527 eng Rojas-Venegas, José Alejandro Quantum-like approaches unveil the intrinsic limits of predictability in compartmental models 2024 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Obtaining accurate forecasts for the evolution of epidemic outbreaks from deterministic compartmental models represents a major theoretical challenge. Recently, it has been shown that these models typically exhibit trajectory degeneracy, as different sets of epidemiological parameters yield comparable predictions at early stages of the outbreak but disparate future epidemic scenarios. In this study, we use the Doi–Peliti approach and extend the classical deterministic compartmental models to a quantum-like formalism to explore whether the uncertainty of epidemic forecasts is also shaped by the stochastic nature of epidemic processes. This approach allows us to obtain a probabilistic ensemble of trajectories, revealing that epidemic uncertainty is not uniform across time, being maximal around the epidemic peak and vanishing at both early and very late stages of the outbreak. Therefore, our results show that, independently of the models’ complexity, the stochasticity of contagion and recovery processes poses a natural constraint for the uncertainty of epidemic forecasts. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E36-23R-FENOL info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/JDC2022-048339-I info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-113582GB-I00 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2021-128005NB-C21 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es 2.0 2024 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY 52 / 114 = 0.456 2024 Q2 T2 0.524 2024 Electrical and Electronic Engineering 2024 Q2 Physics and Astronomy (miscellaneous) 2024 Q2 Mathematical Physics 2024 Q2 Information Systems 2024 Q2 5.2 2024 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Gallarta-Sáenz, Pablo Universidad de Zaragoza Hurtado, Rafael G. Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-5204-1937 Soriano-Paños, David (orcid)0000-0002-6388-4056 2003 395 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Física Materia Condensa. Área Física Materia Condensada 26, 10 (2024), 888 [15 pp.] Entropy ENTROPY 1099-4300 1768391 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145628/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2572158 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145628/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:145628 articulos driver 2026-02-17-20:34:50 ARTICLE