000145635 001__ 145635
000145635 005__ 20241114112316.0
000145635 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1111/gcb.17546
000145635 0248_ $$2sideral$$a140556
000145635 037__ $$aART-2024-140556
000145635 041__ $$aeng
000145635 100__ $$aKlesse, Stefan
000145635 245__ $$aNo future growth enhancement expected at the northern edge for european beech due to continued water limitation
000145635 260__ $$c2024
000145635 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000145635 5203_ $$aWith ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree‐ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species‐dependent and less well‐known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan‐European tree‐ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed‐effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate‐dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021–2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952–2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38–0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2‐4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%–18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%–21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate‐driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%–24% growth increase in the high‐elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (−10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water‐limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.
000145635 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/es/
000145635 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000145635 700__ $$aPeters, Richard L.
000145635 700__ $$aAlfaro-Sánchez, Raquel
000145635 700__ $$aBadeau, Vincent
000145635 700__ $$aBaittinger, Claudia
000145635 700__ $$aBattipaglia, Giovanna
000145635 700__ $$aBert, Didier
000145635 700__ $$aBiondi, Franco
000145635 700__ $$aBosela, Michal
000145635 700__ $$aBudeanu, Marius
000145635 700__ $$aCada, Vojtech
000145635 700__ $$aCamarero, J. Julio
000145635 700__ $$aCavin, Liam
000145635 700__ $$aClaessens, Hugues
000145635 700__ $$aCretan, Ana-Maria
000145635 700__ $$aCufar, Katarina
000145635 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-7585-3636$$aLuis, Martín de$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000145635 700__ $$aDorado-Liñán, Isabel
000145635 700__ $$aDulamsuren, Choimaa
000145635 700__ $$aEspelta, Josep Maria
000145635 700__ $$aGaramszegi, Balazs
000145635 700__ $$aGrabner, Michael
000145635 700__ $$aGricar, Jozica
000145635 700__ $$aHacket-Pain, Andrew
000145635 700__ $$aHansen, Jon Kehlet
000145635 700__ $$aHartl, Claudia
000145635 700__ $$aHevia, Andrea
000145635 700__ $$aHobi, Martina
000145635 700__ $$aJanda, Pavel
000145635 700__ $$aJump, Alistair S.
000145635 700__ $$aKašpar, Jakub
000145635 700__ $$aKazimirovic, Marko
000145635 700__ $$aKeren, Srdjan
000145635 700__ $$aKreyling, Juergen
000145635 700__ $$aLand, Alexander
000145635 700__ $$aLatte, Nicolas
000145635 700__ $$aLebourgeois, François
000145635 700__ $$aLeuschner, Christoph
000145635 700__ $$aLévesque, Mathieu
000145635 700__ $$aLongares, Luis A.
000145635 700__ $$adel Castillo, Edurne Martinez
000145635 700__ $$aMenzel, Annette
000145635 700__ $$aMerela, Maks
000145635 700__ $$aMikoláš, Martin
000145635 700__ $$aMotta, Renzo
000145635 700__ $$aMuffler, Lena
000145635 700__ $$aNeycken, Anna
000145635 700__ $$aNola, Paola
000145635 700__ $$aPanayotov, Momchil
000145635 700__ $$aPetritan, Any Mary
000145635 700__ $$aPetritan, Ion Catalin
000145635 700__ $$aPopa, Ionel
000145635 700__ $$aPrislan, Peter
000145635 700__ $$aLevanic, Tom
000145635 700__ $$aRoibu, Catalin-Constantin
000145635 700__ $$aRubio-Cuadrado, Álvaro
000145635 700__ $$aSánchez-Salguero, Raúl
000145635 700__ $$aŠamonil, Pavel
000145635 700__ $$aStajic, Branko
000145635 700__ $$aSvoboda, Miroslav
000145635 700__ $$aTognetti, Roberto
000145635 700__ $$aToromani, Elvin
000145635 700__ $$aTrotsiuk, Volodymyr
000145635 700__ $$avan der Maaten, Ernst
000145635 700__ $$avan der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke
000145635 700__ $$aVannoppen, Astrid
000145635 700__ $$aVašícková, Ivana
000145635 700__ $$avon Arx, Georg
000145635 700__ $$aWilmking, Martin
000145635 700__ $$aWeigel, Robert
000145635 700__ $$aZlatanov, Tzvetan
000145635 700__ $$aZang, Christian
000145635 700__ $$aBuras, Allan
000145635 7102_ $$13006$$2430$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Geografía Física
000145635 773__ $$g30, 10 (2024), e17546 [16 pp.]$$pGlob. chang. biol.$$tGlobal Change Biology$$x1354-1013
000145635 8564_ $$s8192781$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145635/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000145635 8564_ $$s2692556$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/145635/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
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000145635 951__ $$a2024-11-14-10:18:24
000145635 980__ $$aARTICLE