147685 20260217205607.0 doi 10.1111/gcb.17580 sideral 141105 ART-2024-141105 eng Martinez del Castillo, Edurne Contrasting future growth of Norway spruce and scots pine forests under warming climate 2024 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Forests are essential to climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, transpiration, and turnover. However, the quantification of climate change impacts on forest growth is uncertain and even contradictory in some regions, which is the result of spatially constrained studies. Here, we use an unprecedented network of 1.5 million tree growth records from 493 Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris stands across Europe to predict species‐specific tree growth variability from 1950 to 2016 (R2 > 0.82) and develop 21st‐century gridded projections considering different climate change scenarios. The approach demonstrates overall positive effects of warming temperatures leading to 25% projected conifer growth increases under the SPP370 scenario, but these additional carbon gains are spatially inhomogeneous and associated with geographic climate gradients. Maximum gains are projected for pines in Scandinavia, where growth trajectories indicate 50% increases by 2071–2100. Smaller but significant growth reductions are projected in Mediterranean Europe, where conifer growth shrinks by 25% in response to warmer temperatures. Our results reveal potential mitigating effects via forest carbon sequestration increases in response to global warming and stress the importance of effective forest management. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/882727/EU/Modelling non-stationary tree growth responses to global warming/MONOSTAR This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No H2020 882727-MONOSTAR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es 12.1 2024 ECOLOGY 3 / 200 = 0.015 2024 Q1 T1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION 1 / 74 = 0.014 2024 Q1 T1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 16 / 376 = 0.043 2024 Q1 T1 4.6 2024 Ecology 2024 Q1 Global and Planetary Change 2024 Q1 Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 2024 Q1 Environmental Chemistry 2024 Q1 20.5 2024 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Torbenson, Max C. A. Reinig, Frederick Tejedor, Ernesto de Luis, Martín Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-7585-3636 Esper, Jan 3006 430 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ. Área Geografía Física 30, 11 (2024), e17580 [13 pp.] Glob. chang. biol. Global Change Biology 1354-1013 11741258 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/147685/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2472630 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/147685/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:147685 articulos driver 2026-02-17-20:47:21 ARTICLE