000147878 001__ 147878 000147878 005__ 20250121144847.0 000147878 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1111/pirs.12615 000147878 0248_ $$2sideral$$a127021 000147878 037__ $$aART-2021-127021 000147878 041__ $$aeng 000147878 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0437-7812$$aOlmo, J. 000147878 245__ $$aModeling the spread of COVID-19 in New York City 000147878 260__ $$c2021 000147878 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000147878 5203_ $$aThis paper proposes an ensemble predictor for the weekly increase in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the city of New York at zip code level. Within a Bayesian model averaging framework, the baseline is a Poisson regression for count data. The set of covariates includes autoregressive terms, spatial effects, and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Our results for the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic show that these regressors are more significant to predict the number of new confirmed cases as the pandemic unfolds. Both pointwise and interval forecasts exhibit strong predictive ability in-sample and out-of-sample. © 2021 The Authors. Papers in Regional Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Regional Science Association International. 000147878 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/S16-ADETRE$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/S39-20R 000147878 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc-nd$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ 000147878 590__ $$a2.186$$b2021 000147878 591__ $$aECONOMICS$$b182 / 381 = 0.478$$c2021$$dQ2$$eT2 000147878 591__ $$aGEOGRAPHY$$b52 / 86 = 0.605$$c2021$$dQ3$$eT2 000147878 591__ $$aREGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING$$b32 / 40 = 0.8$$c2021$$dQ4$$eT3 000147878 591__ $$aENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES$$b101 / 128 = 0.789$$c2021$$dQ4$$eT3 000147878 592__ $$a0.873$$b2021 000147878 593__ $$aGeography, Planning and Development$$c2021$$dQ1 000147878 593__ $$aEnvironmental Science (miscellaneous)$$c2021$$dQ1 000147878 594__ $$a4.7$$b2021 000147878 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 000147878 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-5926-2166$$aSanso-Navarro, M.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000147878 7102_ $$14000$$2415$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Análisis Económico$$cÁrea Fund. Análisis Económico 000147878 773__ $$g100, 5 (2021), 1209-1229$$pPap. reg. sci.$$tPapers in Regional Science$$x1056-8190 000147878 8564_ $$s1493109$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/147878/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada 000147878 8564_ $$s1284471$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/147878/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada 000147878 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:147878$$particulos$$pdriver 000147878 951__ $$a2025-01-21-14:47:47 000147878 980__ $$aARTICLE