147878 20250121144847.0 doi 10.1111/pirs.12615 sideral 127021 ART-2021-127021 eng Olmo, J. (orcid)0000-0002-0437-7812 Modeling the spread of COVID-19 in New York City 2021 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted This paper proposes an ensemble predictor for the weekly increase in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the city of New York at zip code level. Within a Bayesian model averaging framework, the baseline is a Poisson regression for count data. The set of covariates includes autoregressive terms, spatial effects, and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Our results for the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic show that these regressors are more significant to predict the number of new confirmed cases as the pandemic unfolds. Both pointwise and interval forecasts exhibit strong predictive ability in-sample and out-of-sample. © 2021 The Authors. Papers in Regional Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Regional Science Association International. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/S16-ADETRE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/S39-20R info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by-nc-nd http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ 2.186 2021 ECONOMICS 182 / 381 = 0.478 2021 Q2 T2 GEOGRAPHY 52 / 86 = 0.605 2021 Q3 T2 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING 32 / 40 = 0.8 2021 Q4 T3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 101 / 128 = 0.789 2021 Q4 T3 0.873 2021 Geography, Planning and Development 2021 Q1 Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 2021 Q1 4.7 2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Sanso-Navarro, M. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-5926-2166 4000 415 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Análisis Económico Área Fund. Análisis Económico 100, 5 (2021), 1209-1229 Pap. reg. sci. Papers in Regional Science 1056-8190 1493109 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/147878/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 1284471 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/147878/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:147878 articulos driver 2025-01-21-14:47:47 ARTICLE