000151165 001__ 151165 000151165 005__ 20250227101504.0 000151165 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.3390/math9182241 000151165 0248_ $$2sideral$$a125809 000151165 037__ $$aART-2021-125809 000151165 041__ $$aeng 000151165 100__ $$aCamacho M. 000151165 245__ $$aAn automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy 000151165 260__ $$c2021 000151165 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000151165 5203_ $$aThis paper provides an accurate chronology of the Spanish reference business cycle adapting a multiple change-point model. In that approach, each combination of peaks and troughs dated in a set of economic indicators is assumed to be a realization of a mixture of bivariate Gaussian distributions, whose number of components is estimated from the data. The means of each of these components refer to the dates of the reference turning points. The transitions across the components of the mixture are governed by Markov chain that is restricted to force left-to-right transition dynamic. In the empirical application, seven recessions in the period from 1970.2 to 2020.2 are identified, which are in high concordance with the timing of the turning point dates established by the Spanish Business Cycle Dating Committee (SBCDC). © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. 000151165 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/AEI/PID2019-107192GB-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MCIU/ECO2017-83255-C3-1-P$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MCIU/ECO2017-83255C3-3-P 000151165 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ 000151165 590__ $$a2.592$$b2021 000151165 591__ $$aMATHEMATICS$$b21 / 333 = 0.063$$c2021$$dQ1$$eT1 000151165 592__ $$a0.538$$b2021 000151165 593__ $$aComputer Science (miscellaneous)$$c2021$$dQ2 000151165 593__ $$aEngineering (miscellaneous)$$c2021$$dQ2 000151165 594__ $$a2.9$$b2021 000151165 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 000151165 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-6609-4247$$aGadea M.D.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000151165 700__ $$aGómez-Loscos A. 000151165 7102_ $$14014$$2225$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Economía Aplicada$$cÁrea Economía Aplicada 000151165 773__ $$g9, 18 (2021), 9182241 [17 pp.]$$pMathematics (Basel)$$tMathematics$$x2227-7390 000151165 8564_ $$s1787321$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/151165/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada 000151165 8564_ $$s2646890$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/151165/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada 000151165 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:151165$$particulos$$pdriver 000151165 951__ $$a2025-02-27-09:26:43 000151165 980__ $$aARTICLE