151165 20251017144609.0 doi 10.3390/math9182241 sideral 125809 ART-2021-125809 eng Camacho M. An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy 2021 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted This paper provides an accurate chronology of the Spanish reference business cycle adapting a multiple change-point model. In that approach, each combination of peaks and troughs dated in a set of economic indicators is assumed to be a realization of a mixture of bivariate Gaussian distributions, whose number of components is estimated from the data. The means of each of these components refer to the dates of the reference turning points. The transitions across the components of the mixture are governed by Markov chain that is restricted to force left-to-right transition dynamic. In the empirical application, seven recessions in the period from 1970.2 to 2020.2 are identified, which are in high concordance with the timing of the turning point dates established by the Spanish Business Cycle Dating Committee (SBCDC). © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/AEI/PID2019-107192GB-I00 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MCIU/ECO2017-83255-C3-1-P info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MCIU/ECO2017-83255C3-3-P info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es 2.592 2021 MATHEMATICS 21 / 333 = 0.063 2021 Q1 T1 0.538 2021 Engineering (miscellaneous) 2021 Q2 Computer Science (miscellaneous) 2021 Q2 2.9 2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Gadea M.D. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-6609-4247 Gómez-Loscos A. 4014 225 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Economía Aplicada Área Economía Aplicada 9, 18 (2021), 9182241 [17 pp.] Mathematics (Basel) Mathematics 2227-7390 1787321 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/151165/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2646890 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/151165/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:151165 articulos driver 2025-10-17-14:16:31 ARTICLE