A random-walk-based epidemiological model

Chu, Andrew ; Huber, Greg ; McGeever, Aaron ; Veytsman, Boris ; Yllanes, David

Resumen: Random walkers on a two-dimensional square lattice are used to explore the spatio-temporal growth of an epidemic. We have found that a simple random-walk system generates non-trivial dynamics compared with traditional well-mixed models. Phase diagrams characterizing the long-term behaviors of the epidemics are calculated numerically. The functional dependence of the basic reproductive number R0 on the model’s defining parameters reveals the role of spatial fluctuations and leads to a novel expression for R0. Special attention is given to simulations of inter-regional transmission of the contagion. The scaling of the epidemic with respect to space and time scales is studied in detail in the critical region, which is shown to be compatible with the directed-percolation universality class.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-98211-5

Año: 2021

Publicado en: Scientific reports (Nature Publishing Group) 11 (2021), 19308 [11 pp.]
ISSN: 2045-2322

Factor impacto JCR: 4.997 (2021)

Categ. JCR: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES rank: 19 / 74 = 0.257 (2021) - Q2 - T1

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 1.005 - Multidisciplinary (Q1)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO-FEDER/PGC2018-094684-B-C21

Tipo y forma: Artículo (Versión definitiva)