000152022 001__ 152022
000152022 005__ 20250326144154.0
000152022 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1080/19475705.2025.2472864
000152022 0248_ $$2sideral$$a143397
000152022 037__ $$aART-2025-143397
000152022 041__ $$aeng
000152022 100__ $$aGelabert, Pere
000152022 245__ $$aHuman-caused ignition pathways under climate change scenarios in Eastern Spain
000152022 260__ $$c2025
000152022 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000152022 5203_ $$aWildfires pose an increasing threat to society, requiring appropriate approaches to understand the components of risk to design effective mitigation strategies. Under this premise, we present a comprehensive methodology to assess the probability of ignition of human-caused wildfires, one of the key drivers of risk. Our approach combines historical ignition records of fires larger than 5 ha (849 ignitions during 1998–2016) in eastern Spain and geospatial information regarding ignition variables. The method leverages the Random Forest algorithm to train a spatially-explicit model of ignition probability, combining distance to wildland interfaces and roads, population density, fuel types, and daily estimates of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC). The model was applied to outline the spatial pattern of probability under current conditions (2015–2020) and future projections across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5–8.5). The model achieved satisfactory predictive performance (AUC = 0.76 ± 0.01). We observed a generalized increase in the probability of ignition in all scenarios linked to climate warming decreasing DFMC, except in SSP1-2.6. Furthermore, changes in population density fostered an increase in probability in rural and mountainous areas. Taken together, our findings make an important contribution to fire risk assessment and the development of adaptation strategies under different socioeconomic trends.
000152022 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003890/EU/FIREURISK - DEVELOPING A HOLISTIC, RISK-WISE STRATEGY FOR EUROPEAN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT/FirEUrisk$$9This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No H2020 101003890-FirEUrisk$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/CNS2023-144228$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-116556RA-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/NextGenerationEU/MS-240621
000152022 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/es/
000152022 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000152022 700__ $$aJiménez-Ruano, Adrián
000152022 700__ $$aRibalaygua, Jaime
000152022 700__ $$aTorres, Luís
000152022 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0477-0796$$aRodrigues, Marcos$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000152022 7102_ $$13006$$2010$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Análisis Geográfico Regi.
000152022 773__ $$g16, 1 (2025)$$pGeomatics, natural hazards & risk$$tGeomatics, natural hazards & risk$$x1947-5705
000152022 8564_ $$s2135693$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/152022/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000152022 8564_ $$s1050437$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/152022/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000152022 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:152022$$particulos$$pdriver
000152022 951__ $$a2025-03-26-13:53:26
000152022 980__ $$aARTICLE