153027 20251017144642.0 doi 10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6 sideral 143460 ART-2025-143460 eng Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. (orcid)0000-0003-2892-518X High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation 2025 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2,3,4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EUR/MICINN/FEDER/TED2021-129152B-C41 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2022-137244OB-I00 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by-nc-nd https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Tramblay, Yves Reig, Fergus González-Hidalgo, José C. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-8518-9177 Beguería, Santiago (orcid)0000-0002-3974-2947 Brunetti, Michele Kalin, Ksenija Cindric Patalen, Leonardo Kržic, Aleksandra Lionello, Piero Lima, Miguel M. Trigo, Ricardo M. El-Kenawy, Ahmed M. Eddenjal, Ali Türkes, Murat Koutroulis, Aristeidis Manara, Veronica Maugeri, Maurizio Badi, Wafae Mathbout, Shifa Bertalanic, Renato Bocheva, Lilia Dabanli, Ismail Dumitrescu, Alexandru Dubuisson, Brigitte Sahabi-Abed, Salah Abdulla, Fayez Fayad, Abbas Hodzic, Sabina Ivanov, Mirjana Radevski, Ivan Peña-Angulo, Dhais Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-5333-2285 Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge Domínguez-Castro, Fernando (orcid)0000-0003-3085-7040 Gimeno-Sotelo, Luis García-Herrera, Ricardo Franquesa, Magí Halifa-Marín, Amar Adell-Michavila, Maria Noguera, Ivan Barriopedro, David Garrido-Perez, Jose M. Azorin-Molina, Cesar Andres-Martin, Miguel Gimeno, Luis Nieto, Raquel Llasat, Maria Carmen Markonis, Yannis Selmi, Rabeb Ben Rached, Soumaya Radovanovic, Slavica Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel Ribes, Aurélien Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi Bataineh, Siham El Khalki, El Mahdi Robaa, Sayed Boucetta, Amina Alsafadi, Karam Mamassis, Nikos Mohammed, Safwan Fernández-Duque, Beatriz Cheval, Sorin Moutia, Sara Stevkov, Aleksandra Stevkova, Silvana Luna, M. Yolanda Potopová, Vera 3006 430 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ. Área Geografía Física 639, 8055 (2025), 658-666 Nature Nature 0028-0836 16748554 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/153027/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2811772 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/153027/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:153027 articulos driver 2025-10-17-14:32:38 ARTICLE