000153678 001__ 153678
000153678 005__ 20251017144617.0
000153678 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1093/oncolo/oyaf040
000153678 0248_ $$2sideral$$a143771
000153678 037__ $$aART-2025-143771
000153678 041__ $$aeng
000153678 100__ $$aLopez-Tarruella, Sara
000153678 245__ $$aRetrospective analysis to validate the CTS5 in patients from <i>El Álamo IV</i> registry and GEICAM adjuvant studies
000153678 260__ $$c2025
000153678 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000153678 5203_ $$aBackground
Identifying high-risk of late recurrence (beyond 10 years) in patients with hormone receptor-positive HER2-negative early breast cancer (EBC) is crucial. The Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years (CTS5) score assesses recurrence risk after 5 years of endocrine therapy (ET). This study validated CTS5 as a prognostic tool for late recurrence by examining its association with Distant Recurrence-Free Survival using GEICAM study data and evaluating model calibration.
Patients and methods
We retrospectively analyzed 5739 hormone receptor-positive HER2-negative EBC patients from the El Álamo IV registry (N = 3509, diagnosed between 2002 and 2005) and 4 adjuvant GEICAM studies (N = 2680, conducted between 1996 and 2006). All patients were distant recurrence-free and alive 5 years after starting adjuvant ET.
Results
The CTS5 classified 43.9% of patients as low-risk, 32.2% as intermediate-risk, and 23.9% as high-risk. Significant differences in DR were observed: hazard ratio (HR) for intermediate- vs. low-risk was 2.55 (95% CI, 1.85-3.51, P &lt; .0001), and HR for high- vs. low-risk was 5.77 (95% CI, 4.28-7.78, P &lt; .0001). Similar results were found across subgroups by menopausal status, duration of adjuvant ET, and prior adjuvant chemotherapy (CT). Calibration showed CTS5 overestimated DR rates in low-risk (P = .0314) and high-risk (P &lt; .0001) patients compared to observed rates.
Conclusions
The CTS5 categorized patients based on late DR risk regardless of menopausal status, ET duration, or CT treatment. However, the model tended to overestimate events, particularly in high-risk groups, especially among those treated with ET for less than 60 months or not receiving CT.
000153678 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.es
000153678 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000153678 700__ $$aPollán, Marina
000153678 700__ $$aCarrasco, Eva
000153678 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-0123-4274$$aAndrés, Raquel$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000153678 700__ $$aMartín, Miguel
000153678 700__ $$aServitja, Sonia
000153678 700__ $$aBermejo, Begoña
000153678 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-9159-4988$$aAntón, Antonio$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000153678 700__ $$aGuerrero-Zotano, Ángel
000153678 700__ $$aMuñoz, Montserrat
000153678 700__ $$aFernández, Luis
000153678 700__ $$aMartínez del Prado, Purificación
000153678 700__ $$aÁlvarez, Isabel
000153678 700__ $$aCalvo, Lourdes
000153678 700__ $$aRodríguez-Lescure, Álvaro
000153678 700__ $$aMarín, María
000153678 700__ $$aRuiz-Borrego, Manuel
000153678 700__ $$aHerranz, Jesús
000153678 700__ $$aPolonio, Óscar
000153678 700__ $$aAdrover, Encarna
000153678 700__ $$aMoreno, Diana
000153678 7102_ $$11007$$2610$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Medicina, Psiqu. y Derm.$$cArea Medicina
000153678 773__ $$g30, 4 (2025), [9 pp.]$$pOncologist$$tONCOLOGIST$$x1083-7159
000153678 8564_ $$s1066458$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/153678/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000153678 8564_ $$s2778965$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/153678/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000153678 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:153678$$particulos$$pdriver
000153678 951__ $$a2025-10-17-14:20:05
000153678 980__ $$aARTICLE