156582 20251017144612.0 doi 10.1111/rssa.12710 sideral 124675 ART-2021-124675 eng Schliep, Erin M. Long-term spatial modelling for characteristics of extreme heat events 2021 There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this debate, we consider extreme heat events, which, at a given location, are well-defined as a run of consecutive days above an associated local threshold. Characteristics of extreme heat events (EHEs) are of primary interest, such as incidence and duration, as well as the magnitude of the average exceedance and maximum exceedance above the threshold during the EHE. Using approximately 60-year time series of daily maximum temperature data collected at 18 locations in a given region, we propose a spatio-temporal model to study the characteristics of EHEs over time. The model enables prediction of the behaviour of EHE characteristics at unobserved locations within the region. Specifically, our approach employs a two-state space–time model for EHEs with local thresholds where one state defines above threshold daily maximum temperatures and the other below threshold temperatures. We show that our model is able to recover the EHE characteristics of interest and outperforms a corresponding autoregressive model that ignores thresholds based on out-of-sample prediction. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/MTM2017-83812-P info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess All rights reserved http://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/ 2.175 2021 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS 25 / 53 = 0.472 2021 Q2 T2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY 39 / 125 = 0.312 2021 Q2 T1 1.191 2021 Economics and Econometrics 2021 Q1 Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty 2021 Q1 Social Sciences (miscellaneous) 2021 Q1 3.6 2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Gelfand, Alan E. Abaurrea, Jesús Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-7974-7435 Asín, Jesús Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-0174-789X Beamonte, María A. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0003-2617-4167 Cebrián, Ana C. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-9052-9674 2007 265 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Métodos Estadísticos Área Estadís. Investig. Opera. 4014 623 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Economía Aplicada Área Métodos Cuant.Econ.Empres 184, 3 (2021), 1070-1092 J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. A Stat. soc. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in society 0964-1998 956086 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/156582/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 1509112 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/156582/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:156582 articulos driver 2025-10-17-14:18:03 ARTICLE