161100 20251017144633.0 doi 10.3390/urbansci9050165 sideral 144227 ART-2025-144227 eng Morales, Mauricio Formulation of Urban Growth Scenarios for Middle-Sized Cities Towards Metropolization: The Case of Puerto Montt, Los Lagos Region 2025 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted This study models changes in land cover and land use in the intermediate city of Puerto Montt, Chile, up to 2050. Three distinct time periods—1988, 2005, and 2020—were used to examine Puerto Montt’s urban growth during these years. These periods were described using the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) technique. Urban growth scenarios were simulated using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Using Machine Learning (ML) techniques, this model has been widely utilized to explain how urban growth patterns have evolved based on the dynamics that drive changes in land use and land cover. Three scenarios were developed for this study: Business-As-Usual (BAU) (S1), Urban-Regional Planning (S2), and Conservationist (S3). According to the findings, Puerto Montt is predicted to undergo morphological changes by 2050, shifting from rural areas primarily composed of woods and agricultural land to open, low-density, low-rise areas outside the municipal limits set by the Communal Regulatory Plans. According to this study, Puerto Montt’s relative entropy level was high, ranging from 0.87 to 0.96, with a maximum value of 1.00 by 2050. These findings are anticipated to provide planners and decision-makers with further knowledge on the territorial design of upcoming urban areas. info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Maturana, Francisco Escolano, Severino Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-3489-0692 Peña-Cortés, Fernando 3006 435 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ. Área Geografía Humana 9, 5 (2025), 165 [21 pp.] Urban sci. Urban science 2413-8851 4246732 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/161100/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2555663 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/161100/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:161100 articulos driver 2025-10-17-14:27:11 ARTICLE