The determinants of national city size distributions: A BMA approach

Puente-Ajovín, Miguel (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Sanso-Navarro, Marcos (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Vera-Cabello, María

Resumen: This paper investigates the factors that influence the national distribution of city sizes, using data from both gridded population estimates and nighttime lights. Leveraging a global definition of human settlements, it also accounts for spatial units smaller than traditional urban centers. To address model uncertainty in identifying robust determinants of cross-country variation in urban concentration, the analysis employs Bayesian model averaging techniques. Across different samples, openness to trade, the Polity score, and natural resource dependence consistently show posterior inclusion probabilities of approximately 50 % or higher. The findings highlight the potential roles of international trade and institutional quality in fostering more balanced national urban systems.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2025.106184

Año: 2025

Publicado en: Cities 166 (2025), 106184 [14 pp.]
ISSN: 0264-2751

Tipo y forma: Artículo (Versión definitiva)

Área (Departamento): Área Fund. Análisis Económico (Dpto. Análisis Económico)