000162650 001__ 162650
000162650 005__ 20251017144645.0
000162650 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1016/j.seps.2025.102319
000162650 0248_ $$2sideral$$a145153
000162650 037__ $$aART-2025-145153
000162650 041__ $$aeng
000162650 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-7914-2623$$aSáenz-Royo, Carlos$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000162650 245__ $$aWind of change for agent decisions and innovation diffusion: The ASPID predictive model for technology adoption
000162650 260__ $$c2025
000162650 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000162650 5203_ $$aInnovations are part of human evolution and are essential for survival. However, traditional innovation diffusion models do not contemplate the possibility of innovation failure and focus on imitation social processes that require historical data for their estimation, providing only ex-post information, which limits their usefulness for risk management operations. This paper proposes a more general new model (ASPID: AbS-based Predictive Innovation Diffusion model) focusing on the decisions of agents who exhibit intentional limited rationality (IBR). ASPID provides: i) a greater depth of ex-post analysis than the classical models; ii) ex-ante information on the innovation diffusion process based on the characteristics of the target agents, the quality of the innovation, and the network topology of their relationships; iii) the success probability since innovations can fail. The model’s versatility allows it to adapt to any information level, from the most aggregated to the most detailed. Some exante and ex-post examples are presented to support the contribution.
000162650 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/AEI/PID2020-113037RB-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/CREVALOR$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/T64-23R
000162650 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es
000162650 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000162650 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-1517-2820$$aHermoso, Ramón$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000162650 700__ $$aChiclana, Francisco
000162650 7102_ $$14012$$2650$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Direcc.Organiza.Empresas$$cÁrea Organización de Empresas
000162650 7102_ $$15007$$2570$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Informát.Ingenie.Sistms.$$cÁrea Lenguajes y Sistemas Inf.
000162650 773__ $$g102 (2025), 102319 [17 pp.]$$pSocio-econ. plan. sci.$$tSOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES$$x0038-0121
000162650 8564_ $$s9325032$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/162650/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000162650 8564_ $$s2580742$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/162650/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000162650 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:162650$$particulos$$pdriver
000162650 951__ $$a2025-10-17-14:33:36
000162650 980__ $$aARTICLE