162650 20251017144645.0 doi 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102319 sideral 145153 ART-2025-145153 eng Sáenz-Royo, Carlos Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-7914-2623 Wind of change for agent decisions and innovation diffusion: The ASPID predictive model for technology adoption 2025 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Innovations are part of human evolution and are essential for survival. However, traditional innovation diffusion models do not contemplate the possibility of innovation failure and focus on imitation social processes that require historical data for their estimation, providing only ex-post information, which limits their usefulness for risk management operations. This paper proposes a more general new model (ASPID: AbS-based Predictive Innovation Diffusion model) focusing on the decisions of agents who exhibit intentional limited rationality (IBR). ASPID provides: i) a greater depth of ex-post analysis than the classical models; ii) ex-ante information on the innovation diffusion process based on the characteristics of the target agents, the quality of the innovation, and the network topology of their relationships; iii) the success probability since innovations can fail. The model’s versatility allows it to adapt to any information level, from the most aggregated to the most detailed. Some exante and ex-post examples are presented to support the contribution. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/AEI/PID2020-113037RB-I00 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/CREVALOR info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/T64-23R info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Hermoso, Ramón Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-1517-2820 Chiclana, Francisco 4012 650 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Direcc.Organiza.Empresas Área Organización de Empresas 5007 570 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Informát.Ingenie.Sistms. Área Lenguajes y Sistemas Inf. 102 (2025), 102319 [17 pp.] Socio-econ. plan. sci. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES 0038-0121 9325032 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/162650/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2580742 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/162650/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:162650 articulos driver 2025-10-17-14:33:36 ARTICLE