000163908 001__ 163908 000163908 005__ 20251113160752.0 000163908 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1038/s43856-022-00145-0 000163908 0248_ $$2sideral$$a146085 000163908 037__ $$aART-2022-146085 000163908 041__ $$aeng 000163908 100__ $$aTovar, Mario$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000163908 245__ $$aModeling the impact of COVID-19 on future tuberculosis burden 000163908 260__ $$c2022 000163908 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000163908 5203_ $$aBackground: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has greatly disrupted our everyday life, forcing the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions in many countries and putting public health services and healthcare systems worldwide under stress. These circumstances are leading to unintended effects such as the increase in the burden of other diseases. Methods: Here, using a data-driven epidemiological model for tuberculosis (TB) spreading, we describe the expected rise in TB incidence and mortality if COVID-associated changes in TB notification are sustained and attributable entirely to disrupted diagnosis and treatment adherence. Results: Our calculations show that the reduction in diagnosis of new TB cases due to the COVID-19 pandemic could result in 228k (CI 187–276) excess deaths in India, 111k (CI 93–134) in Indonesia, 27k (CI 21–33) in Pakistan, and 12k (CI 9–18) in Kenya. Conclusions: We show that it is possible to reverse these excess deaths by increasing the pre-covid diagnosis capabilities from 15 to 50% for 2 to 4 years. This would prevent almost all TB-related excess mortality that could be caused by the COVID-19 pandemic if no additional preventative measures are introduced. Our work therefore provides guidelines for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis epidemic in the years to come. 000163908 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E36-20R$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA-IIU/796-2019$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2019-106859GA-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-115800GB-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/RYC-2017-23560 000163908 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es 000163908 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 000163908 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-1192-8707$$aAleta, Alberto$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000163908 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-2980-9685$$aSanz, Joaquín$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000163908 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0895-1893$$aMoreno, Yamir$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000163908 7102_ $$12004$$2405$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Física Teórica$$cÁrea Física Teórica 000163908 773__ $$g2 (2022), 77 [10 pp.]$$tCommunications medicine 000163908 8564_ $$s956446$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/163908/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada 000163908 8564_ $$s1587228$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/163908/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada 000163908 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:163908$$particulos$$pdriver 000163908 951__ $$a2025-11-13-14:57:38 000163908 980__ $$aARTICLE