163922 20251113160752.0 doi 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110068 sideral 119108 ART-2020-119108 eng Aleta, A. (orcid)0000-0002-1192-8707 A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China 2020 Two months after it was firstly reported, the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 spread worldwide. However, the vast majority of reported infections until February occurred in China. To assess the effect of early travel restrictions adopted by the health authorities in China, we have implemented an epidemic metapopulation model that is fed with mobility data corresponding to 2019 and 2020. This allows to compare two radically different scenarios, one with no travel restrictions and another in which mobility is reduced by a travel ban. Our findings indicate that i) travel restrictions might be an effective measure in the short term, however, ii) they are ineffective when it comes to completely eliminate the disease. The latter is due to the impossibility of removing the risk of seeding the disease to other regions. Furthermore, our study highlights the importance of developing more realistic models of behavioral changes when a disease outbreak is unfolding. Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E36-17R-FENOL info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO-FEDER/FIS2017-87519-P info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by-nc-nd https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es 5.944 2020 PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL 1 / 55 = 0.018 2020 Q1 T1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS 4 / 108 = 0.037 2020 Q1 T1 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY 14 / 84 = 0.167 2020 Q1 T1 1.042 2020 Applied Mathematics 2020 Q1 Statistical and Nonlinear Physics 2020 Q1 Physics and Astronomy (miscellaneous) 2020 Q1 Mathematics (miscellaneous) 2020 Q1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Hu, Q. Ye, J. Ji, P. Moreno, Yamir Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-0895-1893 2004 405 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Física Teórica Área Física Teórica 139 (2020), 110068 [6 pp.] Chaos, solitons fractals Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 0960-0779 3524999 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/163922/files/texto_completo.pdf Postprint 2564250 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/163922/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Postprint oai:zaguan.unizar.es:163922 articulos driver 2025-11-13-14:57:54 ARTICLE