000163973 001__ 163973
000163973 005__ 20251113160753.0
000163973 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1016/j.eswa.2025.129822
000163973 0248_ $$2sideral$$a146094
000163973 037__ $$aART-2026-146094
000163973 041__ $$aeng
000163973 100__ $$aBeltran, Adelaida Ojeda
000163973 245__ $$aMultivariate integration of time series with ML for corn price forecasting in Colombia
000163973 260__ $$c2026
000163973 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000163973 5203_ $$aThe volatility of corn prices poses a significant challenge for both producers and policymakers. This study proposes a hybrid model that combines Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), optimized through Particle Swarm Optimization with Cuckoo Search (PSO-CS), for accurate corn price forecasting. The approach integrates multivariate time series data, including local prices from the Atlántico market and international futures prices from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is applied to enhance signal clarity and improve model performance. Model performance is assessed through sensitivity analysis and statistical comparison using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. The results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble outperforms both individual models and neural network combinations, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.06.
000163973 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/T59-23R
000163973 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aAll rights reserved$$uhttp://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/
000163973 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
000163973 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-2112-3478$$aSuaza-Medina, Mario E.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000163973 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-6557-2494$$aZarazaga-Soria, F. Javier$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000163973 700__ $$aDe-La-Hoz-Franco, Emiro
000163973 700__ $$aEscorcia-Gutierrez, José
000163973 7102_ $$15007$$2570$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Informát.Ingenie.Sistms.$$cÁrea Lenguajes y Sistemas Inf.
000163973 773__ $$g299, Part A (2026), 129822 [23 pp.]$$pExpert syst. appl.$$tExpert Systems with Applications$$x0957-4174
000163973 8564_ $$s1958760$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/163973/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yPostprint
000163973 8564_ $$s3023742$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/163973/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yPostprint
000163973 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:163973$$particulos$$pdriver
000163973 951__ $$a2025-11-13-14:58:51
000163973 980__ $$aARTICLE