000164060 001__ 164060
000164060 005__ 20251121161351.0
000164060 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110859
000164060 0248_ $$2sideral$$a146182
000164060 037__ $$aART-2025-146182
000164060 041__ $$aeng
000164060 100__ $$aCaspersen, Lars
000164060 245__ $$aContrasting responses to climate change – predicting bloom of major temperate fruit tree species in the Mediterranean region and Central Europe
000164060 260__ $$c2025
000164060 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000164060 5203_ $$aClimate change is shifting the timing of leaf emergence and bloom in temperate-zone trees. While warming typically advances spring phenology, insufficient winter chill can delay or prevent bloom. Understanding species- and cultivar-specific responses is vital for adaptation planning. We calibrated the PhenoFlex phenology model using long-term bloom data for 110 cultivars of seven temperate fruit and nut tree species (apple, pear, apricot, sweet cherry, plum, almond, pistachio) across Spain, Tunisia, Morocco and Germany. The models projected bloom dates and potential bloom failure – when agroclimatic requirements are not met – under current (2015) and future scenarios for two time periods (2035–2065, 2070–2100) and four warming scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, SSP5–8.5), using 14–18 General Circulation Models. Three key trends emerged: advancing bloom dates in Germany, delayed bloom for most species in southern Spain, Tunisia, and Morocco, and largely unchanged bloom dates in northern Spain and for almonds in Morocco. The contrasting shifts in bloom result from differences in the primary driver of bloom timing: heat where bloom advances, chill where bloom is delayed and chill and heat substitution where bloom is stationary. In the short term (2035–2065), agroclimatic requirements for most species are expected to be met, except for apricots in southern Spain and pistachios in central Tunisia. Predicted bloom failure rates spiked for most species in Tunisia, Morocco, and southern Spain under pessimistic warming scenarios in the long term (2070–2100) and, to a lesser extent, in northern Spain. Our results reveal cultivar-specific differences in bloom date shifts and failure rates, indicating variation among cultivars in their adaptability to winter warming. This information may guide the design of climate-resilient orchards based on cultivars’ alignments with projected agroclimatic conditions.
000164060 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MCINN-AEI/PID2020-115473RR-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MCINN/PCI2020-111966$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MCINN/PCI2020-112113
000164060 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es
000164060 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000164060 700__ $$aSchiffers, Katja
000164060 700__ $$aPicornell, Antonio
000164060 700__ $$aEgea, Jose A.
000164060 700__ $$aDelgado, Alvaro
000164060 700__ $$aEl Yaacoubi, Adnane
000164060 700__ $$aBenmoussa, Haïfa
000164060 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-8321-1764$$aRodrigo, Javier
000164060 700__ $$aFadón, Erica
000164060 700__ $$aBen Mimoun, Mehdi
000164060 700__ $$aGhrab, Mohamed
000164060 700__ $$aKodad, Ossama
000164060 700__ $$aRuiz, David
000164060 700__ $$aLuedeling, Eike
000164060 773__ $$g375 (2025), 110859 [14 pp.]$$pAgric. for. meteorol.$$tAGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY$$x0168-1923
000164060 8564_ $$s5001345$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/164060/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000164060 8564_ $$s2609979$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/164060/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000164060 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:164060$$particulos$$pdriver
000164060 951__ $$a2025-11-21-14:25:42
000164060 980__ $$aARTICLE