000165127 001__ 165127 000165127 005__ 20251212165958.0 000165127 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1017/jdm.2024.9 000165127 0248_ $$2sideral$$a143215 000165127 037__ $$aART-2024-143215 000165127 041__ $$aeng 000165127 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-5979-4528$$aPirla, Sergio$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000165127 245__ $$aA psychological model of collective risk perceptions 000165127 260__ $$c2024 000165127 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000165127 5203_ $$aDecades of research seek to understand how people form perceptions of risk by modeling either individual-level psychological processes or broader social and organizational mechanisms. Yet, little formal theoretical work has focused on the interaction of these 2 sets of factors. In this paper, I contribute to closing this gap by modifying a psychologically rich individual model of probabilistic reasoning to account for the transmission and collective emergence of risk perceptions. Using data from 357 individuals, I present experimental evidence in support of my main building assumptions and demonstrate the empirical validity of my model. Incorporating these results into an agent-based setting, I simulate over 1.5 billion social interactions to analyze the emergence of risk perceptions within organizations under different information frictions (i.e., limits on the availability and precision of social information). My results show that by focusing on information quality (rather than availability), groups and organizations can more effectively boost the accuracy of their emergent risk perceptions. This work offers researchers a formal framework to analyze the relationship between psychological and organizational factors in shaping risk perceptions. 000165127 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es 000165127 590__ $$a1.9$$b2024 000165127 591__ $$aPSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY$$b88 / 221 = 0.398$$c2024$$dQ2$$eT2 000165127 592__ $$a1.032$$b2024 000165127 593__ $$aEconomics and Econometrics$$c2024$$dQ1 000165127 593__ $$aApplied Psychology$$c2024$$dQ2 000165127 593__ $$aDecision Sciences (miscellaneous)$$c2024$$dQ2 000165127 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 000165127 7102_ $$14012$$2650$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Direcc.Organiza.Empresas$$cÁrea Organización de Empresas 000165127 773__ $$g19 (2024), e13 [23 pp.]$$pJudgment and Decision Making$$tJudgment and Decision Making$$x1930-2975 000165127 787__ $$tA Psychological Model of Collective Risk Perceptions$$whttps://osf.io/bdgm3/?view_only=aa1201551e604645a07843cdeac8b9c8 000165127 8564_ $$s2318371$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/165127/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada 000165127 8564_ $$s2164875$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/165127/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada 000165127 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:165127$$particulos$$pdriver 000165127 951__ $$a2025-12-12-14:43:13 000165127 980__ $$aARTICLE