000165368 001__ 165368
000165368 005__ 20260107201858.0
000165368 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1002/bjs.11746
000165368 0248_ $$2sideral$$a147114
000165368 037__ $$aART-2020-147114
000165368 041__ $$aeng
000165368 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-8068-5016$$aSeron-Arbeloa, Carlos$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000165368 245__ $$aElective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans
000165368 260__ $$c2020
000165368 5203_ $$aBackground
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19.
Methods
A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations.
Results
The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption.
Conclusion
A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
000165368 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess$$aAll rights reserved$$uhttp://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/
000165368 590__ $$a6.939$$b2020
000165368 591__ $$aSURGERY$$b11 / 210 = 0.052$$c2020$$dQ1$$eT1
000165368 592__ $$a2.202$$b2020
000165368 593__ $$aSurgery$$c2020$$dQ1
000165368 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000165368 700__ $$aon behalf of COVIDSurg Collaborative
000165368 7102_ $$11007$$2610$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Medicina, Psiqu. y Derm.$$cArea Medicina
000165368 773__ $$g107, 11 (2020), 1440-1449$$pBr. j. surg.$$tBRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY$$x0007-1323
000165368 8564_ $$s1315136$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/165368/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000165368 8564_ $$s2447931$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/165368/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000165368 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:165368$$particulos$$pdriver
000165368 951__ $$a2026-01-07-18:53:16
000165368 980__ $$aARTICLE