000165392 001__ 165392
000165392 005__ 20260107201858.0
000165392 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.3390/su172310617
000165392 0248_ $$2sideral$$a147220
000165392 037__ $$aART-2025-147220
000165392 041__ $$aeng
000165392 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-5282-1930$$aEsteban Rodríguez, Samuel$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000165392 245__ $$aThe Spanish Rental Market (2008–2025): Housing Policies, International Mobility, and Territorial Effects
000165392 260__ $$c2025
000165392 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000165392 5203_ $$aIn advanced economies characterized by sustained immigration, rising inequality, and chronically underdeveloped social housing sectors, demand-side welfare interventions risk being capitalized into higher rents rather than improving housing affordability. This study investigates how Spain’s welfare state transformation—particularly the rollout of IPREM-indexed policies such as the Minimum Living Income (IMV) and the Youth Rental Voucher—interacted with migration flows and tourism-driven housing competition to reshape private rental markets between 2008 and 2025. Using harmonized national data from OPI, Idealista, INE, and the Bank of Spain (2010–2024), we apply a descriptive time-series approach that combines structural break tests (Chow and Bai–Perron), pre/post-2021 correlation comparisons, regional heterogeneity analysis, and robustness checks (including Spearman correlations and jackknife sensitivity analyses). We identify a pronounced structural break in 2021: while consular visa issuances—a proxy for combined migration and tourism inflows—showed no significant association with advertised rental prices before 2021 (r ≈ 0.27, p = 0.41), a remarkably strong co-movement emerged thereafter (r ≈ 0.90–0.92). This shift aligns precisely with the nationwide implementation of IMV, institutionalization of the Youth Voucher, and disbursement of EU Recovery and Resilience Facility funds. The effect is most acute in regions with rigid housing supply and high exposure to tourist-use dwellings (VUT)—notably the Balearic Islands, Murcia, Cantabria, and Navarre—suggesting that increased effective demand may have been absorbed primarily through price increases rather than expanded access. While our observational design precludes causal inference and the findings should be interpreted as exploratory and hypothesis-generating, the convergence of timing, magnitude, and institutional context renders a policy-mediated demand channel plausible. The results caution that, without complementary supply-side measures—such as social housing investment, rehabilitation incentives, or VUT regulation—demand-side subsidies may inadvertently reinforce housing inequality and reduce fiscal efficiency, thereby undermining the sustainability goals they aim to advance.
000165392 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es
000165392 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000165392 700__ $$aLiu, Zhaoyang
000165392 7102_ $$13006$$2435$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Geografía Humana
000165392 773__ $$g17, 23 (2025), 10617 [26 pp.]$$pSustainability (Basel)$$tSustainability (Switzerland)$$x2071-1050
000165392 8564_ $$s1022556$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/165392/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000165392 8564_ $$s2498854$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/165392/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000165392 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:165392$$particulos$$pdriver
000165392 951__ $$a2026-01-07-18:53:43
000165392 980__ $$aARTICLE