000165748 001__ 165748
000165748 005__ 20260113234335.0
000165748 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1038/s42005-025-02406-5
000165748 0248_ $$2sideral$$a147366
000165748 037__ $$aART-2025-147366
000165748 041__ $$aeng
000165748 100__ $$aLamata-Otín, Santiago$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000165748 245__ $$aGenotype networks drive oscillating endemicity and epidemic trajectories in viral evolution
000165748 260__ $$c2025
000165748 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000165748 5203_ $$aRapidly evolving viruses use antigenic drift as a key mechanism to evade host immunity and persist in real populations. While traditional models of antigenic drift and epidemic spread rely on low-dimensional antigenic spaces, genomic surveillance data reveal that viral evolution produces complex antigenic genotype networks with hierarchical modular structures. In this study, we present an eco-evolutionary framework in which viral evolution and population immunity dynamics are shaped by the structure of antigenic genotype networks. Using synthetic networks, we demonstrate that network topology alone can drive transitions between stable endemic states and recurrent seasonal epidemics. Furthermore, our results show how the integration of the genotype network of the H3N2 influenza in our model allows for estimating the emergence times of various haplotypes resulting from its evolution. Our findings underscore the critical role of the topology of genotype networks in shaping epidemic behavior and, besides, provide a robust framework for integrating real-world genomic data into predictive epidemic models.
000165748 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E36-23R-FENOL$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/JDC2022-048339-I$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2021-128005NB-C21$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2023-147734NB-I00
000165748 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es
000165748 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000165748 700__ $$aRotita-Ion, Octavian C.
000165748 700__ $$aArenas, Alex
000165748 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-6388-4056$$aSoriano-Paños, David
000165748 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-5204-1937$$aGómez-Gardeñes, Jesús$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000165748 7102_ $$12003$$2395$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Física Materia Condensa.$$cÁrea Física Materia Condensada
000165748 773__ $$g8, 502 (2025), 1-10$$tCommunications Physics$$x2399-3650
000165748 8564_ $$s1326639$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/165748/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000165748 8564_ $$s2922866$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/165748/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000165748 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:165748$$particulos$$pdriver
000165748 951__ $$a2026-01-13-22:07:30
000165748 980__ $$aARTICLE