000167936 001__ 167936 000167936 005__ 20260122172506.0 000167936 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.5194/nhess-25-4713-2025 000167936 0248_ $$2sideral$$a147618 000167936 037__ $$aART-2025-147618 000167936 041__ $$aeng 000167936 100__ $$aGelabert, Pere Joan 000167936 245__ $$aAssessing human-caused wildfire ignition likelihood across Europe 000167936 260__ $$c2025 000167936 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000167936 5203_ $$aAbstract. This study features a cohesive modelling approach of human-caused wildfire ignitions applied to a set of representative regions in terms of fire activity across Europe (pilot sites, PS). Our main goal was to develop a common approach to model human-caused ignition probability at a fine-grained spatial resolution (100 m) and identify the main drivers of ignitions. Specifically, we (i) ascertain which factors influence ignitions in each PS; (ii) deliver a spatial-explicit representation of ignition probability, and (iii) provide a framework for comparison with regional-scale models among PS. To do so, we calibrated Random Forest models from historical fire records compiled by local fire agencies, and geospatial layers of land cover, accessibility, population density and dead fine-fuel moisture content (DFMC). Models were built individually for each PS, comparing them with a full model constructed from all PS. Furthermore, special attention was given to the effect of spatial autocorrelation in model performance. All models achieved sufficient predictive performance (Areas Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUCs) from 0.70 to 0.89). For all PS models, the yearly anomaly in DFMC was the most influential variable. Among human-related factors, distance to the Wildland Urban Interface emerged as the most relevant variable, followed by proximity to roads, population density, and the fraction of wildland coverage. The performance of the full model achieved an AUC value of 0.81, with mean DFMC and anomaly being the main ignition factors, modulated by distance to roads and population density. The local performance of the full model dropped by 0.10 for AUC in both Southern Sweden and Attica (Greece) regions. The wildfire occurrence models developed in this study are essential for understanding wildfire ignition hazard and may help implement integrated wildfire risk management strategies and mitigation policies in fire-prone EU landscapes. 000167936 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003890/EU/FIREURISK - DEVELOPING A HOLISTIC, RISK-WISE STRATEGY FOR EUROPEAN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT/FirEUrisk$$9This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No H2020 101003890-FirEUrisk$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/CNS2023-144228$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-116556RA-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MS/240621 000167936 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es 000167936 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 000167936 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-7397-1818$$aJiménez-Ruano, Adrián 000167936 700__ $$aOchoa, Clara 000167936 700__ $$aAlcasena, Fermín 000167936 700__ $$aSjöström, Johan 000167936 700__ $$aMarrs, Christopher 000167936 700__ $$aRibeiro, Luís Mário 000167936 700__ $$aPalaiologou, Palaiologos 000167936 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-7213-1718$$aBentué Martínez, Carmen$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000167936 700__ $$aChuvieco, Emilio 000167936 700__ $$aVega-García, Cristina 000167936 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0477-0796$$aRodrigues, Marcos$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000167936 7102_ $$13006$$2435$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Geografía Humana 000167936 7102_ $$13006$$2010$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Análisis Geográfico Regi. 000167936 773__ $$g25, 11 (2025), 4713-4729$$pNat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.$$tNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences$$x1561-8633 000167936 8564_ $$s3074484$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/167936/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada 000167936 8564_ $$s2639206$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/167936/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada 000167936 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:167936$$particulos$$pdriver 000167936 951__ $$a2026-01-22-16:07:18 000167936 980__ $$aARTICLE