167936 20260122172506.0 doi 10.5194/nhess-25-4713-2025 sideral 147618 ART-2025-147618 eng Gelabert, Pere Joan Assessing human-caused wildfire ignition likelihood across Europe 2025 Abstract. This study features a cohesive modelling approach of human-caused wildfire ignitions applied to a set of representative regions in terms of fire activity across Europe (pilot sites, PS). Our main goal was to develop a common approach to model human-caused ignition probability at a fine-grained spatial resolution (100 m) and identify the main drivers of ignitions. Specifically, we (i) ascertain which factors influence ignitions in each PS; (ii) deliver a spatial-explicit representation of ignition probability, and (iii) provide a framework for comparison with regional-scale models among PS. To do so, we calibrated Random Forest models from historical fire records compiled by local fire agencies, and geospatial layers of land cover, accessibility, population density and dead fine-fuel moisture content (DFMC). Models were built individually for each PS, comparing them with a full model constructed from all PS. Furthermore, special attention was given to the effect of spatial autocorrelation in model performance. All models achieved sufficient predictive performance (Areas Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUCs) from 0.70 to 0.89). For all PS models, the yearly anomaly in DFMC was the most influential variable. Among human-related factors, distance to the Wildland Urban Interface emerged as the most relevant variable, followed by proximity to roads, population density, and the fraction of wildland coverage. The performance of the full model achieved an AUC value of 0.81, with mean DFMC and anomaly being the main ignition factors, modulated by distance to roads and population density. The local performance of the full model dropped by 0.10 for AUC in both Southern Sweden and Attica (Greece) regions. The wildfire occurrence models developed in this study are essential for understanding wildfire ignition hazard and may help implement integrated wildfire risk management strategies and mitigation policies in fire-prone EU landscapes. Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003890/EU/FIREURISK - DEVELOPING A HOLISTIC, RISK-WISE STRATEGY FOR EUROPEAN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT/FirEUrisk This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No H2020 101003890-FirEUrisk info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/CNS2023-144228 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-116556RA-I00 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MS/240621 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián (orcid)0000-0001-7397-1818 Ochoa, Clara Alcasena, Fermín Sjöström, Johan Marrs, Christopher Ribeiro, Luís Mário Palaiologou, Palaiologos Bentué Martínez, Carmen Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-7213-1718 Chuvieco, Emilio Vega-García, Cristina Rodrigues, Marcos Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-0477-0796 3006 435 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ. Área Geografía Humana 3006 010 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ. Área Análisis Geográfico Regi. 25, 11 (2025), 4713-4729 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 1561-8633 3074484 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/167936/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2639206 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/167936/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:167936 articulos driver 2026-01-22-16:07:18 ARTICLE