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000168499 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.3390/su18021043
000168499 0248_ $$2sideral$$a147965
000168499 037__ $$aART-2026-147965
000168499 041__ $$aeng
000168499 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-7379-6159$$aRomeo, Luis M.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000168499 245__ $$aCO2 Emissions Scenarios in the European Union—The Urgency of Carbon Capture and Controlled Economic Growth
000168499 260__ $$c2026
000168499 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000168499 5203_ $$aAlthough greenhouse gas emissions have significantly reduced, the European Union still faces a major challenge in meeting its 2050 net-zero goal set under the European Green Deal. Focusing on the impacts of population, economic output, and carbon intensity of economy, this study employs Index Decomposition Analysis to estimate the reductions in carbon intensity needed to reach this target. The findings show that the extent of the technical effort required for decarbonization is much influenced by economic expansion. Under a 3% annual Gross Domestic Product growth scenario, the EU’s carbon intensity of economy must decline by 11.8% per year, which is a particularly demanding rate given the already low baseline. The decomposition also quantifies the technological challenge: under high growth, up to 5867 MtCO2 in reductions would be needed by 2050 (compared with 1990), with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) contributing only 10–15%. In contrast, in zero- or negative-growth scenarios, required reductions fall to 4923–4594 MtCO2, with CCS accounting for up to 50–90%. These results show that decarbonization in EU industrial sectors requires systemic transformations and strategic CCS deployment. A balanced approach, limiting economic growth and increasing innovation, appears essential to achieve the climate neutrality target.
000168499 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/T46-23R
000168499 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es
000168499 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000168499 7102_ $$15004$$2590$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Ingeniería Mecánica$$cÁrea Máquinas y Motores Térmi.
000168499 773__ $$g18, 2 (2026), 1043 [17 pp.]$$pSustainability (Basel)$$tSustainability (Switzerland)$$x2071-1050
000168499 8564_ $$s2079224$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/168499/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000168499 8564_ $$s2451276$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/168499/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
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000168499 951__ $$a2026-02-09-14:42:13
000168499 980__ $$aARTICLE